Poppe Franziska, Annuß Rolf, Kuhn Joseph
Sachgebiet GE 4.2, Bayerisches Landesamt für Gesundheit und Lebensmittelsicherheit, Veterinärstraße 2, 85764, Oberschleißheim, Deutschland.
FG Gesundheitsberichterstattung, Landeszentrum Gesundheit Nordrhein-Westfalen, Westerfeldstraße 35/37, Bielefeld, 33611, Deutschland.
Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2017 Dec;60(12):1422-1428. doi: 10.1007/s00103-017-2648-0.
For the calculation of life expectancy on a regional level, data from the mortality statistics and population numbers are needed. The latter are derived from population censuses, which have to be undertaken every 10 years according to the EU regulation No. 763/2008. In Germany, the last census took place in 2011 (Census 2011). The current population numbers are calculated on the basis of the most recent population census (population update). Births, deaths, immigration and migration, in addition to other data, are taken into account in this calculation. However, with passing time since the last census, inaccuracies in population updates may increase, which can affect the value of life expectancy calculations.Based on the comparison of life expectancy rankings, the impact and extent of changing over from the 1987 to the more recent 2011 census for regional comparisons were examined in two parts of Germany, Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia. As expected, the results show that larger changes in the calculated life expectancy result from larger changes in population statistics. However, noteworthy changes in life expectancy rankings do not necessarily follow larger changes in the population numbers. Regional life expectancy rankings are potentially always influenced by inaccuracies in the underlying population statistics. This should be taken into account when interpreting such small-scale differences.
为了在区域层面计算预期寿命，需要死亡率统计数据和人口数量数据。后者来自人口普查，根据欧盟第763/2008号法规，人口普查必须每10年进行一次。在德国，上一次人口普查于2011年进行（2011年人口普查）。当前的人口数量是根据最近的人口普查（人口更新）计算得出的。在这一计算中，除其他数据外，还会考虑出生、死亡、移民和迁移情况。然而，自上次人口普查以来，随着时间的推移，人口更新中的不准确之处可能会增加，这可能会影响预期寿命计算的数值。基于预期寿命排名的比较，在德国的巴伐利亚和北莱茵 - 威斯特法伦这两个地区，研究了从1987年到更近的2011年人口普查进行区域比较时的影响和变化程度。正如预期的那样，结果表明，计算出的预期寿命的较大变化源于人口统计数据的较大变化。然而，预期寿命排名的显著变化不一定伴随着人口数量的较大变化。区域预期寿命排名可能总是受到基础人口统计数据不准确的影响。在解释此类小规模差异时应考虑到这一点。
