Merli M G
Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle 98195-3340, USA.
Demography. 1998 Aug;35(3):345-60.
Little is known about past and present mortality in Vietnam, as the first official data on mortality have only recently become available from censuses taken in 1979 and 1989. Using these data, I estimate Vietnamese mortality during the intercensal period using two techniques that rely on age-specific growth rates from two successive age distributions. Intercensal emigration and differential completeness of census enumeration associated with massive outflows of refugees in the wake of the Vietnam War, population-redistribution policies, and a highly mobile population represent important sources of bias for the estimation of intercensal mortality. I incorporate several strategies to minimize bias from these sources and to select the method that is least sensitive to errors associated with them. Life expectancy at birth estimated for the 1979-1989 intercensal period is 61.4 years for males and 63.2 for females. These results suggest a trend of declining mortality between the 1970s and the 1980s and add solid empirical evidence to the debate over whether mortality in Vietnam has been deteriorating or improving.
由于有关死亡率的首批官方数据直到最近才从1979年和1989年的人口普查中获得，因此人们对越南过去和现在的死亡率了解甚少。利用这些数据，我采用两种依赖于两个连续年龄分布的年龄别增长率的技术，估算了两次人口普查期间的越南死亡率。两次人口普查期间的移民以及与越南战争后大量难民外流、人口再分配政策和高流动性人口相关的人口普查枚举的差异完整性，是估算两次人口普查期间死亡率的重要偏差来源。我采用了几种策略来尽量减少这些来源的偏差，并选择对与之相关的误差最不敏感的方法。1979 - 1989年两次人口普查期间出生时的预期寿命估计为男性61.4岁，女性63.2岁。这些结果表明20世纪70年代至80年代死亡率呈下降趋势，并为越南死亡率是在恶化还是在改善的辩论增添了确凿的实证证据。
