The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4, Box 50005, 104 05, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ambio. 2017 Dec;46(Suppl 3):475-485. doi: 10.1007/s13280-017-0960-4.
We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework's application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.
我们提出了一个支持管理的框架，该框架基于对北极海洋的社会-生态系统观点。我们通过描绘浮游动物组成的变化和蟹类入侵这两种与气候驱动变化相关的政策情景，说明了该框架的应用。我们分析了这些情景中社会经济、自然和治理系统之间典型的系统动态。我们的整体方法可以帮助管理者识别出由于复杂系统相互作用而产生的潜在问题，并在问题和解决方案之间进行优先级排序，即使可用数据有限。
