Adebayo Gbenga, Neumark Yehuda, Gesser-Edelsburg Anat, Abu Ahmad Wiessam, Levine Hagai
Hebrew University-Hadassah Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jerusalem, Israel.
School of Public Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel.
BMJ Glob Health. 2017 Aug 15;2(3):e000296. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000296. eCollection 2017.
We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing.
Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases.
Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R=0.318; p=0.014).
These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.
我们旨在描述寨卡病毒的在线搜索趋势，并检验其与寨卡病毒发病率的关联，评估主要卫生当局发布的寨卡病毒相关新闻稿的内容，并研究在线趋势与新闻稿发布时间之间的关联。
利用谷歌趋势，研究了2015年5月1日至2016年5月30日全球以及五个疑似病例数最多的国家中寨卡病毒及相关搜索词的在线趋势。然后检验了这些国家中在线趋势与寨卡病毒发病率之间的相关性。对世界卫生组织/泛美卫生组织（PAHO）和疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）在研究期间发布的所有寨卡病毒相关新闻稿进行了透明度、不确定性和受众细分方面的评估。应用维特扩展平行过程模型评估自我效能、反应效能、易感性和严重性。使用带有外生预测变量的自回归积分移动平均（ARIMAX）（p，d，q）回归模型来量化在线趋势与新闻稿发布时间之间的关联。
在全球范围内，寨卡病毒在线搜索趋势在2016年初之前较低，之后兴趣急剧上升。在所研究的五个国家中的四个国家，观察到在线趋势与疑似寨卡病例数之间存在强相关性（r = 0.748 - 0.922；p < 0.001）。与世界卫生组织/泛美卫生组织发布的新闻稿相比，疾病控制与预防中心的新闻稿显著更有可能提供联系方式和其他资源的链接，包括图表，具有风险咨询性质，并且更具可读性和简洁性。ARIMAX建模结果表明，世界卫生组织（平稳 - R = 0.345；p < 0.001）和疾病控制与预防中心（平稳 - R = 0.318；p = 0.014）发布新闻稿前1周出现在线趋势。
这些结果表明在线趋势有助于大流行监测。识别寨卡病毒新闻稿在内容和发布时间方面的不足有助于指导当前大流行及未来公共卫生紧急事件中的健康传播工作。
