Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Risk Anal. 2018 Jun;38(6):1223-1238. doi: 10.1111/risa.12936. Epub 2017 Nov 6.
Implementation of probabilistic analyses in exposure assessment can provide valuable insight into the risks of those at the extremes of population distributions, including more vulnerable or sensitive subgroups. Incorporation of these analyses into current regulatory methods for occupational pesticide exposure is enabled by the exposure data sets and associated data currently used in the risk assessment approach of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Monte Carlo simulations were performed on exposure measurements from the Agricultural Handler Exposure Database and the Pesticide Handler Exposure Database along with data from the Exposure Factors Handbook and other sources to calculate exposure rates for three different neurotoxic compounds (azinphos methyl, acetamiprid, emamectin benzoate) across four pesticide-handling scenarios. Probabilistic estimates of doses were compared with the no observable effect levels used in the EPA occupational risk assessments. Some percentage of workers were predicted to exceed the level of concern for all three compounds: 54% for azinphos methyl, 5% for acetamiprid, and 20% for emamectin benzoate. This finding has implications for pesticide risk assessment and offers an alternative procedure that may be more protective of those at the extremes of exposure than the current approach.
在暴露评估中实施概率分析可以为处于人群分布极端的人(包括更脆弱或敏感的亚群)的风险提供有价值的见解。通过将这些分析纳入目前职业性农药暴露的监管方法中,可以利用暴露数据和相关数据来实现这一目标,这些数据目前用于环境保护署(EPA)风险评估方法。对农业处理者暴露数据库和农药处理者暴露数据库中的暴露测量值以及暴露因素手册和其他来源的数据进行了蒙特卡罗模拟,以计算在四种农药处理情况下三种不同神经毒性化合物(甲基谷硫磷、乙酰甲胺磷、甲氨基阿维菌素苯甲酸盐)的暴露率。概率估计的剂量与 EPA 职业风险评估中使用的无观察效应水平进行了比较。预测某些百分比的工人会超过三种化合物的关注水平:甲基谷硫磷为 54%,乙酰甲胺磷为 5%,甲氨基阿维菌素苯甲酸盐为 20%。这一发现对农药风险评估具有重要意义,并提供了一种替代程序,与目前的方法相比,这种程序可能对暴露极端的人更具保护作用。