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中国 PM 与每日呼吸死亡之间的浓度-反应关系:时间序列研究的系统评价和荟萃回归分析。

Concentration-Response Relationship between PM and Daily Respiratory Deaths in China: A Systematic Review and Metaregression Analysis of Time-Series Studies.

机构信息

Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden.

Unit of Biostatistics, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden.

出版信息

Biomed Res Int. 2017;2017:5806185. doi: 10.1155/2017/5806185. Epub 2017 Oct 16.

Abstract

The association between the particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 m (PM) and daily respiratory deaths, particularly the concentration-response pattern, has not been fully examined and established in China. We conducted a systematic review of time-series studies to compile information on the associations between PM concentration and respiratory deaths and used metaregression to assess the concentration-response relationship. Out of 1,957 studies screened, eleven articles in English and two articles in Chinese met the eligibility criteria. For single-day lags, per 10 g/m increase in PM concentration was associated with 0.30 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10, 0.50] percent increase in daily respiratory deaths; for multiday lags, the corresponding increase in respiratory deaths was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.83) percent. Difference in the effects was observed between the northern cities and the south cities in China. No statistically significant concentration-response relationship between PM concentrations and their effects was found. With increasingly wider location coverage for PM data, it is crucial to further investigate the concentration-response pattern of PM effects on respiratory and other cause-specific mortality for the refinement and adaptation of global and national air quality guidelines and targets.

摘要

在中国,大气动力学直径≤2.5μm 的颗粒物(PM)与每日呼吸死亡之间的关联,特别是浓度-反应模式,尚未得到充分研究和确定。我们对时间序列研究进行了系统综述,以汇编 PM 浓度与呼吸死亡之间关联的信息,并使用荟萃回归来评估浓度-反应关系。在筛选出的 1957 项研究中,有 11 篇英文文章和 2 篇中文文章符合入选标准。对于单日滞后,PM 浓度每增加 10μg/m,每日呼吸死亡的百分比增加 0.30(95%置信区间:0.10,0.50);对于多日滞后,呼吸死亡的相应增加百分比为 0.69(95%置信区间:0.55,0.83)。在中国,北方城市和南方城市之间的影响存在差异。未发现 PM 浓度与其影响之间存在统计学上显著的浓度-反应关系。随着 PM 数据的位置覆盖范围越来越广,对于全球和国家空气质量指南和目标的细化和调整,进一步研究 PM 对呼吸和其他特定原因死亡率的影响的浓度-反应模式至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/be26/5662824/ffc18d4f2aff/BMRI2017-5806185.001.jpg

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