Strano Emanuele, Giometto Andrea, Shai Saray, Bertuzzo Enrico, Mucha Peter J, Rinaldo Andrea
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, D-82234 Wessling, Germany.
R Soc Open Sci. 2017 Oct 18;4(10):170590. doi: 10.1098/rsos.170590. eCollection 2017 Oct.
Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.
由于全球城市化进程的加快及其直接后果,包括食物需求、流通和土地利用模式的变化,下个世纪全球铺设道路的范围将大幅增加。为了模拟这种增长的影响,了解全球道路网络结构中是否存在可能的自组织模式至关重要。在此,我们使用包含地球上所有主要道路的最大更新数据库,以及全球城市和农田清单,表明一旦重新调整以考虑平均道路长度的差异,农田内的道路长度分布与城市中的道路长度分布并无区别。这种相似性延伸到给定区域内城市或农业区域的道路长度分布。我们发现,平均道路长度与相关区域的缩放存在两种不同的模式,一般在后者的小值和大值时成立。在适当大的城市和农田区域,我们发现平均道路长度和总道路长度随其区域面积线性增加,这与早期的观点不同。缩放模式表明,简单而普遍的机制在全球范围内调节城市和农田道路的扩张。因此,我们的研究结果对基于土地利用变化的全球道路基础设施增长以及维持城市扩张的规划政策具有启示意义。