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使用青少年服务/案件管理量表(简版)对西班牙年轻罪犯样本中的累犯情况进行预测。

Prediction of Recidivism With the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (Reduced Version) in a Sample of Young Spanish Offenders.

作者信息

Cuervo Keren, Villanueva Lidón

机构信息

1 Jaume I University, Castellón de la Plana, Spain.

出版信息

Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2018 Aug;62(11):3562-3580. doi: 10.1177/0306624X17741250. Epub 2017 Nov 14.

Abstract

Intervention in youth recidivism is critical in helping prevent young people from continuing their criminal career into adulthood, on a life-course-persistent trajectory. Andrews and Bonta attempt to provide an explanation of risk and protective factors using a conversion of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), which predicts recidivism. In this study, scores have been obtained from 382 adolescents ( M age = 16.33 years) from the juvenile court, to check the ability of a reduced version of the YLS/CMI, to predict recidivism. The outcome variables for recidivism were examined in the 2-year follow-up period, after their first assessment in the court. The risk factors showed good levels of recidivism prediction. Recidivists obtained significant higher mean total risk scores than nonrecidivists in the reduced ( M = 6.54, SD = 2.44; M = 3.66, SD = 2.85), with areas under the curve (AUCs) ranging from .601 to .857. The factors that emerged as the most discriminative were education/employment, criminal friends, and personality. All the protective factors differentiated between recidivists and nonrecidivists. The results, therefore, showed that this reduced version would be capable of predicting youth recidivism in a reliable way.

摘要

对青少年累犯进行干预对于帮助防止年轻人在持续犯罪的人生轨迹上步入成年期至关重要。安德鲁斯和邦塔试图通过对青少年服务/个案管理量表(YLS/CMI)进行转换来解释风险和保护因素,该量表可预测累犯情况。在本研究中,从少年法庭的382名青少年(平均年龄 = 16.33岁)那里获取了分数,以检验YLS/CMI简版预测累犯的能力。在他们首次在法庭接受评估后的2年随访期内,对累犯的结果变量进行了检查。风险因素显示出良好的累犯预测水平。在简版量表中,累犯的平均总风险得分显著高于非累犯(分别为M = 6.54,SD = 2.44;M = 3.66,SD = 2.85),曲线下面积(AUC)范围为0.601至0.857。最具区分性的因素是教育/就业、犯罪朋友和个性。所有保护因素在累犯和非累犯之间都存在差异。因此,结果表明这个简版能够可靠地预测青少年累犯情况。

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