Department of Management, Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University.
Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Area, Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University.
J Appl Psychol. 2018 Mar;103(3):347-358. doi: 10.1037/apl0000282. Epub 2017 Nov 20.
Past research on dynamic workplace performance evaluation has taken as axiomatic that temporal performance trends produce naïve extrapolation effects on performance ratings. That is, we naïvely assume that an individual whose performance has trended upward over time will continue to improve, and rate that individual more positively than an individual whose performance has trended downward over time-even if, on average, the 2 individuals have performed at an equivalent level. However, we argue that such naïve extrapolation effects are more pronounced in Western countries than Eastern countries, owing to Eastern countries having a more holistic cognitive style. To test our hypotheses, we examined the effect of performance trend on expectations of future performance and ratings of past performance across 2 studies: Study 1 compares the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects among Singaporeans primed with either a more or less holistic cognitive style, and Study 2 examines holistic cognitive style as a mediating mechanism accounting for differences in the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects between American and Chinese raters. Across both studies, we found support for our predictions that dynamic performance trends have less impact on the ratings of more holistic thinkers. Implications for the dynamic performance and naïve extrapolation literatures are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record
过去关于动态工作场所绩效评估的研究假定，时间绩效趋势会对绩效评估产生幼稚的外推效应。也就是说，我们天真地假设，一个人的绩效随着时间的推移呈上升趋势，他将继续提高，并且比绩效随着时间的推移呈下降趋势的人给予更高的评价——即使平均而言，这两个人的表现水平相当。然而，我们认为，由于东方国家的认知风格更加整体，这种幼稚的外推效应在西方国家比在东方国家更为明显。为了检验我们的假设，我们在两项研究中检验了绩效趋势对未来绩效期望和过去绩效评价的影响：研究 1 比较了在更具整体或不那么整体的认知风格下被启动的新加坡人的幼稚外推效应的大小，研究 2 检验了整体认知风格作为一种中介机制，解释了美国和中国评价者之间幼稚外推效应大小的差异。在这两项研究中，我们都支持我们的预测，即动态绩效趋势对更具整体思维的人的评价的影响较小。讨论了对动态绩效和幼稚外推文献的影响。
