Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
School of Computing and Information Systems, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Sci Rep. 2017 Dec 1;7(1):16725. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8.
Agent-based modelling is a useful approach for capturing heterogeneity in disease transmission. In this study, a synthetic population was developed for American Samoa using an iterative approach based on population census, questionnaire survey and land use data. The population will be used as the basis for a new agent-based model, intended specifically to fill the knowledge gaps about lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination, but also to be readily adaptable to model other infectious diseases. The synthetic population was characterized by the statistically realistic population and household structure, and high-resolution geographic locations of households. The population was simulated over 40 years from 2010 to 2050. The simulated population was compared to estimates and projections of the U.S. Census Bureau. The results showed the total population would continuously decrease due to the observed large number of emigrants. Population ageing was observed, which was consistent with the latest two population censuses and the Bureau's projections. The sex ratios by age groups were analysed and indicated an increase in the proportion of males in age groups 0-14 and 15-64. The household size followed a Gaussian distribution with an average size of around 5.0 throughout the simulation, slightly less than the initial average size 5.6.
基于代理的建模是捕获疾病传播异质性的有用方法。在这项研究中，使用基于人口普查、问卷调查和土地利用数据的迭代方法为美属萨摩亚开发了一个综合人口模型。该人群将作为一个新的基于代理的模型的基础，旨在专门填补关于淋巴丝虫病传播和消除的知识空白，但也可以很容易地适应其他传染病的模型。综合人群的特点是具有统计学上真实的人口和家庭结构，以及家庭的高分辨率地理位置。该人群在 2010 年至 2050 年期间模拟了 40 多年。将模拟人口与美国人口普查局的估计和预测进行了比较。结果表明，由于观察到大量移民，总人口将持续减少。人口老龄化现象明显，与最近两次人口普查和该局的预测一致。按年龄组分析了性别比例，表明 0-14 岁和 15-64 岁年龄组男性比例增加。家庭规模呈正态分布，整个模拟过程中的平均规模约为 5.0，略低于初始平均规模 5.6。
