淋巴丝虫病终期策略:使用 GEOFIL 模型模拟在美属萨摩亚的大规模药物治疗和有针对性的监测与治疗策略。

Lymphatic filariasis endgame strategies: Using GEOFIL to model mass drug administration and targeted surveillance and treatment strategies in American Samoa.

机构信息

National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.

出版信息

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023 May 18;17(5):e0011347. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011347. eCollection 2023 May.

Abstract

American Samoa underwent seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) from 2000-2006, but subsequent surveys found evidence of ongoing transmission. American Samoa has since undergone further rounds of MDA in 2018, 2019, and 2021; however, recent surveys indicate that transmission is still ongoing. GEOFIL, a spatially-explicit agent-based LF model, was used to compare the effectiveness of territory-wide triple-drug MDA (3D-MDA) with targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. Both approaches relied on treatment with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole. We simulated three levels of whole population coverage for 3D-MDA: 65%, 73%, and 85%, while the targeted strategies relied on surveillance in schools, workplaces, and households, followed by targeted treatment. In the household-based strategies, we simulated 1-5 teams travelling village-to-village and offering antigen (Ag) testing to randomly selected households in each village. If an Ag-positive person was identified, treatment was offered to members of all households within 100m-1km of the positive case. All simulated interventions were finished by 2027 and their effectiveness was judged by their 'control probability'-the proportion of simulations in which microfilariae prevalence decreased between 2030 and 2035. Without future intervention, we predict Ag prevalence will rebound. With 3D-MDA, a 90% control probability required an estimated ≥ 4 further rounds with 65% coverage, ≥ 3 rounds with 73% coverage, or ≥ 2 rounds with 85% coverage. While household-based strategies were substantially more testing-intensive than 3D-MDA, they could offer comparable control probabilities with substantially fewer treatments; e.g. three teams aiming to test 50% of households and offering treatment to a 500m radius had approximately the same control probability as three rounds of 73% 3D-MDA, but used < 40% the number of treatments. School- and workplace-based interventions proved ineffective. Regardless of strategy, reducing Ag prevalence below the 1% target threshold recommended by the World Health Organization was a poor indicator of the interruption of LF transmission, highlighting the need to review blanket elimination targets.

摘要

美属萨摩亚在 2000 年至 2006 年期间进行了七轮大规模药物驱虫(MDA)以消灭淋巴丝虫病(LF),但后续调查发现仍存在传播证据。此后,美属萨摩亚于 2018 年、2019 年和 2021 年再次进行了 MDA;然而,最近的调查表明传播仍在继续。GEOFIL 是一种空间明确的基于代理的 LF 模型,用于比较全岛范围的三药 MDA(3D-MDA)与有针对性的监测和治疗策略的效果。这两种方法都依赖于伊维菌素、乙胺嗪和阿苯达唑的治疗。我们模拟了 3D-MDA 的三种全人群覆盖率水平:65%、73%和 85%,而有针对性的策略则依赖于在学校、工作场所和家庭进行监测,然后进行有针对性的治疗。在基于家庭的策略中,我们模拟了 1-5 个团队在村庄之间旅行,并对每个村庄中随机选择的家庭进行抗原(Ag)检测。如果发现 Ag 阳性者,则向阳性病例 100m-1km 范围内的所有家庭成员提供治疗。所有模拟干预措施都在 2027 年前完成,并根据其“控制概率”来判断其效果——即微丝蚴患病率在 2030 年至 2035 年间下降的模拟比例。如果没有未来的干预,我们预计 Ag 患病率将反弹。如果采用 3D-MDA,要达到 90%的控制概率,则需要估计进行≥4 轮、覆盖率≥65%的 MDA,或进行≥3 轮、覆盖率≥73%的 MDA,或进行≥2 轮、覆盖率≥85%的 MDA。虽然基于家庭的策略比 3D-MDA 更具检测性,但它们可以用更少的治疗提供相当的控制概率;例如,三支旨在测试 50%家庭并提供 500m 半径内治疗的团队,其控制概率与三轮 73%的 3D-MDA 大致相同,但使用的治疗次数不到 40%。学校和工作场所为基础的干预措施被证明是无效的。无论采用何种策略,将 Ag 患病率降低到世界卫生组织推荐的 1%目标阈值以下都不能很好地表明 LF 传播已被中断,这突出表明需要审查全面消除目标。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b82d/10231811/ede4035103ac/pntd.0011347.g001.jpg

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