Bomblies Arne
University of Vermont, School of Engineering, 33 Colchester Ave, Burlington, VT 05405, USA.
Parasit Vectors. 2014 Jul 3;7:308. doi: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-308.
The modeling of malaria vector mosquito populations yields great insight into drivers of malaria transmission at the village scale. Simulation of individual mosquitoes as "agents" in a distributed, dynamic model domain may be greatly beneficial for simulation of spatial relationships of vectors and hosts.
In this study, an agent-based model is used to simulate the life cycle and movement of individual malaria vector mosquitoes in a Niger Sahel village, with individual simulated mosquitoes interacting with their physical environment as well as humans. Various processes that are known to be epidemiologically important, such as the dependence of parity on flight distance between developmental habitat and blood meal hosts and therefore spatial relationships of pools and houses, are readily simulated using this modeling paradigm. Impacts of perturbations can be evaluated on the basis of vectorial capacity, because the interactions between individuals that make up the population- scale metric vectorial capacity can be easily tracked for simulated mosquitoes and human blood meal hosts, without the need to estimate vectorial capacity parameters.
As expected, model results show pronounced impacts of pool source reduction from larvicide application and draining, but with varying degrees of impact depending on the spatial relationship between pools and human habitation. Results highlight the importance of spatially-explicit simulation that can model individuals such as in an agent-based model.
The impacts of perturbations on village scale malaria transmission depend on spatial locations of individual mosquitoes, as well as the tracking of relevant life cycle events and characteristics of individual mosquitoes. This study demonstrates advantages of using an agent-based approach for village-scale mosquito simulation to address questions in which spatial relationships are known to be important.
疟疾病媒蚊子种群建模有助于深入了解村庄层面疟疾传播的驱动因素。在分布式动态模型域中将单个蚊子模拟为“智能体”,可能对模拟病媒与宿主的空间关系大有裨益。
在本研究中,使用基于智能体的模型来模拟尼日尔萨赫勒地区一个村庄中单个疟疾病媒蚊子的生命周期和活动,模拟的单个蚊子与它们的物理环境以及人类相互作用。利用这种建模范式可以轻松模拟各种已知在流行病学上很重要的过程,例如产次对发育栖息地与血餐宿主之间飞行距离的依赖性,以及因此产生的积水池与房屋的空间关系。可以基于病媒能量来评估扰动的影响,因为构成种群尺度指标病媒能量的个体之间的相互作用,对于模拟蚊子和人类血餐宿主来说很容易追踪,无需估计病媒能量参数。
正如预期的那样,模型结果显示,使用杀幼虫剂和排水减少积水池源头会产生显著影响,但影响程度因积水池与人类居住的空间关系而异。结果突出了空间明确模拟的重要性,这种模拟可以像在基于智能体的模型中那样对个体进行建模。
扰动对村庄层面疟疾传播的影响取决于单个蚊子的空间位置,以及对单个蚊子相关生命周期事件和特征的追踪。本研究证明了使用基于智能体的方法进行村庄尺度蚊子模拟以解决已知空间关系很重要的问题的优势。