Epidemic Surveillance and Response Division, Rwanda Biomedical Center, Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda.
Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kigali, Rwanda.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2018 Jan;12(1):38-45. doi: 10.1111/irv.12494. Epub 2017 Dec 2.
Estimates of influenza-associated hospitalization are severely limited in low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa.
To estimate the national number of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization in Rwanda.
We multiplied the influenza virus detection rate from influenza surveillance conducted at 6 sentinel hospitals by the national number of respiratory hospitalization obtained from passive surveillance after adjusting for underreporting and reclassification of any respiratory hospitalizations as SARI during 2012-2014. The population at risk was obtained from projections of the 2012 census. Bootstrapping was used for the calculation of confidence intervals (CI) to account for the uncertainty associated with all levels of adjustment. Rates were expressed per 100 000 population. A sensitivity analysis using a different estimation approach was also conducted.
SARI cases accounted for 70.6% (9759/13 813) of respiratory admissions at selected hospitals: 77.2% (6783/8786) and 59.2% (2976/5028) among individuals aged <5 and ≥5 years, respectively. Overall, among SARI cases tested, the influenza virus detection rate was 6.3% (190/3022): 5.7% (127/2220) and 7.8% (63/802) among individuals aged <5 and ≥5 years, respectively. The estimated mean annual national number of influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations was 3663 (95% CI: 2930-4395-rate: 34.7; 95% CI: 25.4-47.7): 2637 (95% CI: 2110-3164-rate: 168.7; 95% CI: 135.0-202.4) among children aged <5 years and 1026 (95% CI: 821-1231-rate: 11.3; 95% CI: 9.0-13.6) among individuals aged ≥5 years. The estimates obtained from both approaches were not statistically different (overlapping CIs).
The burden of influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations was substantial and was highest among children aged <5 years.
在中低收入国家,特别是在非洲,对流感相关住院的估计严重受限。
估计卢旺达全国因流感相关严重急性呼吸道感染(SARI)住院的人数。
我们将在 6 家哨点医院进行的流感监测中检测到的流感病毒的比例乘以从被动监测中获得的全国呼吸道住院人数,然后根据漏报率和任何呼吸道住院重新分类为 SARI 进行调整。高危人群来自 2012 年人口普查的预测。为了考虑到所有调整级别的不确定性,使用自举法计算置信区间(CI)。发病率以每 100000 人表示。还进行了一项使用不同估计方法的敏感性分析。
在选定的医院中,SARI 病例占呼吸道入院人数的 70.6%(9759/13813):年龄<5 岁的个体占 77.2%(6783/8786),年龄≥5 岁的个体占 59.2%(2976/5028)。总体而言,在接受检测的 SARI 病例中,流感病毒的检出率为 6.3%(190/3022):年龄<5 岁的个体为 5.7%(127/2220),年龄≥5 岁的个体为 7.8%(63/802)。估计的全国每年平均流感相关 SARI 住院人数为 3663 例(95%CI:2930-4395-发病率:34.7;95%CI:25.4-47.7):年龄<5 岁的儿童为 2637 例(95%CI:2110-3164-发病率:168.7;95%CI:135.0-202.4),年龄≥5 岁的个体为 1026 例(95%CI:821-1231-发病率:11.3;95%CI:9.0-13.6)。两种方法得出的估计值没有统计学差异(置信区间重叠)。
流感相关 SARI 住院的负担很大,<5 岁的儿童住院负担最高。