Kaufman Jay S
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Health Disparities, Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Supported by the Canada Research Chairs Program. Drs. Osagie Obasogie, Hailey Banack, Nicholas King, and Joanna-Trees Merckx provided generous and insightful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript.
Am J Law Med. 2017 May;43(2-3):193-208. doi: 10.1177/0098858817723659.
Statistical adjustment is a ubiquitous practice in all quantitative fields that is meant to correct for improprieties or limitations in observed data, to remove the influence of nuisance variables or to turn observed correlations into causal inferences. These adjustments proceed by reporting not what was observed in the real world, but instead modeling what would have been observed in an imaginary world in which specific nuisances and improprieties are absent. These techniques are powerful and useful inferential tools, but their application can be hazardous or deleterious if consumers of the adjusted results mistake the imaginary world of models for the real world of data. Adjustments require decisions about which factors are of primary interest and which are imagined away, and yet many adjusted results are presented without any explanation or justification for these decisions. Adjustments can be harmful if poorly motivated, and are frequently misinterpreted in the media's reporting of scientific studies. Adjustment procedures have become so routinized that many scientists and readers lose the habit of relating the reported findings back to the real world in which we live.
统计调整在所有定量领域都是一种普遍的做法,旨在纠正观测数据中的不当之处或局限性,消除干扰变量的影响,或将观测到的相关性转化为因果推断。这些调整并非报告现实世界中实际观察到的情况,而是通过对一个不存在特定干扰和不当之处的假想世界中可能观察到的情况进行建模来进行。这些技术是强大且有用的推理工具,但如果调整结果的使用者将模型的假想世界误认为是数据的现实世界,那么它们的应用可能会有风险或有害。调整需要决定哪些因素是主要关注的,哪些是被设想排除的,但许多调整结果在呈现时并未对这些决定做出任何解释或说明。如果动机不当,调整可能会有害,并且在媒体对科学研究的报道中经常被误解。调整程序已经变得如此常规化,以至于许多科学家和读者失去了将报告的研究结果与我们生活的现实世界联系起来的习惯。