Christiansen B A, Smith G T, Roehling P V, Goldman M S
J Consult Clin Psychol. 1989 Feb;57(1):93-9. doi: 10.1037//0022-006x.57.1.93.
An accumulating literature has shown the influence of childhood experiences associated with alcohol use on later drinking practices. Recent studies have suggested that alcohol-related expectancy may serve as an intervening variable to connect these early experiences with the later, proximal decision to drink when opportunities for actual alcohol consumption arise. Those studies, however, have collected expectancy and drinking data concurrently, whereas the present study for the first time reports on the power of expectancies measured in early adolescents (seventh and eighth grades) to predict self-reported drinking onset and drinking behavior measured a full year later. Results show that five of seven expectancy scores readily discriminated between nonproblem drinkers and those subsequently beginning problem drinking and accounted for a large portion of the variance in a continuous quantity/frequency index and a problem drinking index. The strength of these timelagged relations strengthens the case for inferring that expectancies have causal power on drinking behavior and suggests prevention strategies.
越来越多的文献表明，与饮酒相关的童年经历会对日后的饮酒行为产生影响。近期研究表明，与酒精相关的预期可能作为一个中介变量，将这些早期经历与日后实际有饮酒机会时做出的近期饮酒决定联系起来。然而，那些研究同时收集了预期和饮酒数据，而本研究首次报告了在青少年早期（七年级和八年级）测量的预期对一年后自我报告的饮酒开始情况和饮酒行为的预测能力。结果显示，七个预期分数中的五个能够轻松区分无饮酒问题者和随后开始出现饮酒问题的人，并且在连续的饮酒量/频率指数和饮酒问题指数中解释了很大一部分方差。这些时间滞后关系的强度进一步证明了预期对饮酒行为具有因果作用，并为预防策略提供了依据。
