Smith G T
Department of Psychology, University of Kentucky, Lexington 40506-0044.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1994 Feb 28;708:165-71. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1994.tb24709.x.
Alcohol expectancy has proven to be a powerful predictor of drinking behavior, including alcoholism, in a wide range of groups. Three recent studies that begin to address expectancy's relation to other alcoholism vulnerability factors are reviewed. Results indicate that: (1) expectancies for reinforcement from alcohol predate teens' first drinking experiences; (2) expectancies predict subsequent drinking onset and problem drinking; (3) high initial expectancies lead to a vicious cycle of progressively more drinking and more positive expectancies during the adolescent years; (4) expectancy mediates the influence of family drinking history on adolescent drinking; and (5) as an alcohol-specific risk factor, expectancy adds to and (in women) interacts with more general, dispositional (personality) risk factors to predict problem drinking in young adults. These findings support the model of expectancy as a mediator of the original causal influences of earlier learning experiences.
在众多群体中，饮酒预期已被证明是饮酒行为（包括酗酒）的有力预测指标。本文回顾了最近三项开始探讨预期与其他酗酒易感性因素之间关系的研究。结果表明：（1）对酒精强化作用的预期先于青少年首次饮酒经历；（2）预期可预测随后的饮酒开始及问题饮酒；（3）较高的初始预期会导致在青少年时期出现饮酒量逐渐增加和预期愈发积极的恶性循环；（4）预期介导了家庭饮酒史对青少年饮酒的影响；（5）作为特定于酒精的风险因素，预期与更一般的性格风险因素共同作用（在女性中还相互作用），以预测年轻人的问题饮酒。这些发现支持了将预期作为早期学习经历原始因果影响的中介的模型。
