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基于模拟的事故后救援中复杂应急物流网络的可靠性。

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

机构信息

College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.

School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Jan 6;15(1):79. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15010079.

Abstract

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

摘要

本文研究了复杂应急物流网络的可靠性,因为可靠性对于减少事故后紧急救援中的环境和公共健康损失至关重要。首先分析了此类网络的统计特征。在有效定义复杂应急物流网络的连通可靠性和评估指标之后,以特定的应急物流网络为例,采用两种不同的攻击模式进行了网络可靠性的仿真分析。仿真分析得到了应急供应时间的变化趋势和有效节点的比例,并验证了网络特性和不同类型的攻击对网络可靠性的影响。结果表明,该应急物流网络既是小世界网络又是无标度网络。在面临随机攻击时,应急物流网络会稳定变化,而在面临选择性攻击时则非常脆弱。因此,应特别注意供应节点和高连接性节点的保护。该仿真方法为研究应急物流网络提供了一种新工具,也为类似研究提供了参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b84e/5800178/c0c6b34cad64/ijerph-15-00079-g001.jpg

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