Division of Mental and Physical Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO box 4404, Nydalen, N-0403, Oslo, Norway.
Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, PO box 1094, Blindern, 0317, Oslo, Norway.
J Abnorm Child Psychol. 2018 Jul;46(5):923-933. doi: 10.1007/s10802-017-0391-5.
This study sought to examine the direction of causation between language delay and two externalizing problems; inattention and aggression. Autoregressive fixed effects models were fitted to data from 25,474 children (age 1.5 to 5 years; 50.8% boys) in the population-based longitudinal Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), to model the direction of causality for language delay and inattention and aggression, respectively. The most parsimonious model for the relationship between language delay and inattention was one where both common factors and reciprocal causation were estimated. Adjusted for common factors, language delay was estimated to have a non-significant effect on inattention by b = 0.12 (p = 0.06), and inattention to have a significant effect on language delay by b = 0.19 (p = 0.03). The most parsimonious model for the direction of causality for language delay and aggression was one where the entire association could be explained by language delay having effect on aggression b = 0.12 (p < 0.02). It appears that while language delay can best be conceptualized as an epiphenomenon of inattention partly related to both common factors and causal processes, aggression can best be conceptualized as caused by language delay. This illumination of the hypothetical causal links between two common problem domains in preschool-aged children has clear implications on where to implement interventions to prevent co-occurrence of language delay and externalizing problems.
本研究旨在探讨语言延迟与两种外化问题（注意力不集中和攻击行为）之间的因果关系。我们使用挪威母婴纵向研究（MoBa）中 25474 名儿童（年龄 1.5 至 5 岁，50.8%为男孩）的数据，采用自回归固定效应模型分别对语言延迟与注意力不集中和攻击行为之间的因果关系进行建模。语言延迟与注意力不集中之间最简约的因果关系模型是同时估计共同因素和相互因果关系的模型。在调整了共同因素后，语言延迟对注意力不集中的影响估计值为 0.12（p=0.06），不具有统计学意义，而注意力不集中对语言延迟的影响估计值为 0.19（p=0.03），具有统计学意义。语言延迟与攻击行为之间最简约的因果关系模型是语言延迟对攻击行为的影响可以完全解释整个关联，其估计值为 0.12（p<0.02）。这表明，虽然语言延迟可以被概念化为注意力不集中的一种偶然现象，部分与共同因素和因果过程有关，但攻击行为可以被概念化为由语言延迟引起的。这一结果阐明了学前儿童中两个常见问题领域之间的假设性因果联系，这对实施干预措施以预防语言延迟和外化问题的共发具有明确的意义。
