Lackner Julia, Weiss Michael, Müller-Graf Christine, Greiner Matthias
Department of Exposure, Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Berlin, Germany.
Institute for Food Quality and Safety, University of Veterinary Medicine, Foundation, Hannover, Germany.
PLoS One. 2018 Jan 11;13(1):e0190409. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190409. eCollection 2018.
This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of methylmercury for children born in Germany in the year 2014. Humans are mainly exposed to methylmercury when they eat fish or seafood. Prenatal methylmercury exposure is associated with IQ loss. To quantify this disease burden, we used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the incidence of mild and severe mental retardation in children born to mothers who consume fish based on empirical data. Subsequently, we calculated the disease burden with the disability-adjusted life years (DALY)-method. DALYs combine mortality and morbidity in one measure and quantify the gap between an ideal situation, where the entire population experiences the standard life expectancy without disease and disability, and the actual situation. Thus, one DALY corresponds to the loss of one year of life in good health. The methylmercury-induced burden of disease for the German birth cohort 2014 was an average of 14,186 DALY (95% CI 12,915-15,440 DALY). A large majority of the DALYs was attributed to morbidity as compared to mortality. Of the total disease burden, 98% were attributed to mild mental retardation, which only leads to morbidity. The remaining disease burden was a result of severe mental retardation with equal proportions of premature death and morbidity.
本研究旨在估算2014年在德国出生儿童的甲基汞疾病负担。人类主要在食用鱼类或海鲜时接触甲基汞。产前甲基汞暴露与智商降低有关。为了量化这种疾病负担，我们基于经验数据，采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法估算食用鱼类的母亲所生儿童中轻度和重度智力迟钝的发病率。随后，我们用伤残调整生命年（DALY）方法计算疾病负担。DALY将死亡率和发病率合并为一个指标，并量化理想状况（即整个人口都享有无疾病和残疾的标准预期寿命）与实际状况之间的差距。因此，一个DALY相当于健康生命损失一年。2014年德国出生队列中甲基汞所致疾病负担平均为14,186 DALY（95%可信区间为12,915 - 15,440 DALY）。与死亡率相比，大部分DALY归因于发病率。在总的疾病负担中，98%归因于仅导致发病的轻度智力迟钝。其余疾病负担是由重度智力迟钝导致的，其中过早死亡和发病的比例相同。
