Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, 110016, India.
School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
Nat Commun. 2018 Jan 22;9(1):318. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-02755-y.
Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM from baseline period (2001-2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM. We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4-4 and 28.5-38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031-2040 and 2091-2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3.
目前，印度因环境细颗粒物（PM）暴露而过早死亡的人数众多，但在气候变化下的趋势尚不清楚。在这里，我们通过将来自耦合模型比较计划 5（CMIP5）模型的 PM 基线期（2001-2005 年）的相对变化应用于卫星衍生的基线 PM，来估计到 2100 年的环境 PM 暴露情况。然后，我们使用社会经济和人口预测在共享社会经济途径（SSP）情景下预测死亡人数。在 RCP4.5 情景下，PM 暴露预计将在 2030 年达到峰值，在 RCP8.5 情景下，PM 暴露将在 2040 年达到峰值。在 2031-2040 年和 2091-2100 年期间，与 RCP4.5 情景相比，RCP8.5 情景下的过早死亡负担预计将分别增加 2.4-4%和 28.5-38.8%。预计经济增长带来的健康状况改善将抵消人口和年龄分布变化的影响，导致除 RCP8.5 暴露和 SSP3 组合外，所有情景的人均 PM 健康负担都会减少。
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