State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Nat Commun. 2023 Aug 26;14(1):5222. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40908-4.
Estimating the health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of great significance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.9 which aims to substantially reduce the deaths and illnesses from air pollution. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in deaths attributable to PM air pollution in China from 2000 to 2035 and examined the drivers. The results show that from 2019 to 2035, deaths were projected to decease 15.4% (6.6%-20.7%, 95% CI) and 8.4% (0.6%-13.5%) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively, but increase 10.4% (5.1%-20.5%) and 18.1% (13.0%-28.3%) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Population aging will be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM air pollution, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare. Region-specific measures are required to mitigate the health burden of air pollution and this requires long-term efforts and mutual cooperation among regions in China.
在中国人口老龄化的背景下，评估空气污染对健康的影响对于实现可持续发展目标 3.9 具有重要意义，该目标旨在大幅减少空气污染导致的死亡和疾病。在这里，我们估计了 2000 年至 2035 年中国因 PM 空气污染导致的死亡人数的时空变化，并研究了驱动因素。结果表明，在 SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下，2019 年至 2035 年，预计死亡人数将分别减少 15.4%（95%置信区间：6.6%-20.7%）和 8.4%（0.6%-13.5%），而在 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP3-7.0 情景下，预计死亡人数将分别增加 10.4%（5.1%-20.5%）和 18.1%（13.0%-28.3%）。人口老龄化将是导致 PM 空气污染导致的死亡人数增加的主要因素，这将抵消空气污染和医疗保健改善带来的积极成果。需要采取区域特定的措施来减轻空气污染对健康的影响，这需要中国各地区长期努力和相互合作。
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