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全球商业周期同步的动态分析。

Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization.

作者信息

Lopes António M, Tenreiro Machado J A, Huffstot John S, Mata Maria Eugénia

机构信息

UISPA-LAETA/INEGI, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.

Institute of Engineering, Polytechnic of Porto, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Porto, Portugal.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2018 Feb 6;13(2):e0191491. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191491. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies.

摘要

本文通过应用用于处理复杂系统的计算技术,报告了过去56年中12个(发达国家和发展中国家)国家商业周期的动态分析。由于双边网络暴露引起的密切传染效应,它们揭示了长期趋同和国家层面的相互联系。相互连接性决定了跨境影响的程度。局部特征和冲击传播复杂性也可能是周期局部配置的真正驱动力。算法建模被证明是研究世界经济中复杂动态的一种可靠方法。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8400/5800548/b1d3a29ff453/pone.0191491.g001.jpg

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