Meteorology, Environment & Demographic Surveillance (MEDsurveillance) Ltd, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
Department of Chemistry, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
Environ Pollut. 2018 May;236:146-157. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.034.
Global burden of disease estimates reveal that people in Nigeria are living shorter lifespan than the regional or global average life expectancy. Ambient air pollution is a top risk factor responsible for the reduced longevity. But, the magnitude of the loss or the gains in longevity accruing from the pollution reductions, which are capable of driving mitigation interventions in Nigeria, remain unknown. Thus, we estimate the loss, and the gains in longevity resulting from ambient PM pollution reductions at the local sub-national level using life table approach. Surface average PM concentration datasets covering Nigeria with spatial resolution of ∼1 km were obtained from the global gridded concentration fields, and combined with ∼1 km gridded population of the world (GPWv4), and global administrative unit layers (GAUL) for territorial boundaries classification. We estimate the loss or gains in longevity using population-weighted average pollution level and baseline mortality data for cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer in adults ≥25 years and for respiratory infection in children under 5. As at 2015, there are six "highly polluted", thirty "polluted" and one "moderately polluted" States in Nigeria. People residing in these States lose ∼3.8-4.0, 3.0-3.6 and 2.7 years of life expectancy, respectively, due to the pollution exposure. But, assuming interventions achieve global air quality guideline of 10 μg/m, longevity would increase by 2.6-2.9, 1.9-2.5 and 1.6 years for people in the State-categories, respectively. The longevity gains are indeed high, but to achieve them, mitigation interventions should target emission sources having the highest population exposures.
全球疾病负担估计显示，尼日利亚人的预期寿命比该地区或全球平均预期寿命短。 环境空气污染是导致寿命缩短的首要风险因素。 但是，由于污染减少而导致的寿命损失或增加的幅度，这些幅度足以推动尼日利亚的缓解干预措施，仍然未知。 因此，我们使用生命表方法在地方国家以下一级估算环境 PM 污染减少带来的寿命损失和增加。 从全球网格化浓度场中获得了覆盖尼日利亚的空间分辨率约为 1km 的地面平均 PM 浓度数据集，并与世界上约 1km 的网格化人口（GPWv4）和用于领土边界分类的全球行政单位层（GAUL）相结合。 我们使用人口加权平均污染水平和成人（≥25 岁）心肺疾病和肺癌以及 5 岁以下儿童呼吸道感染的基线死亡率数据来估算寿命损失或增加。 截至 2015 年，尼日利亚有六个“高度污染”州、三十个“污染”州和一个“中度污染”州。 由于污染暴露，居住在这些州的人们分别损失了约 3.8-4.0、3.0-3.6 和 2.7 年的预期寿命。 但是，如果假设干预措施达到全球空气质量准则 10μg/m，那么这些州的人口预期寿命将分别增加 2.6-2.9、1.9-2.5 和 1.6 年。 这些寿命增加幅度确实很高，但要实现这些目标，缓解干预措施应针对具有最高人口暴露的排放源。
