State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
Environ Pollut. 2018 May;236:49-59. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.018.
China established Domestic Emission Control Area (DECA) for sulphur since 2015 to constrain the increasing shipping emissions. However, future DECA policy-makings are not supported due to a lack of quantitive evaluations. To investigate the effects of current and possible Chinese DECAs policies, a model is presented for the forecast of shipping emissions and evaluation of potential costs and benefits of an DECA policy package set in 2020. It includes a port-level and regional-level projection accounting for shipping trade volume growth, share of ship types, and fuel consumption. The results show that without control measures, both SO and particulate matter (PM) emissions are expected to increase by 15.3-61.2% in Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta from 2013 to 2020. However, most emissions can be reduced annually by the establishment of a DECA that depends on the size of the control area and the fuel sulphur content limit. Costs range from 0.667 to 1.561 billion dollars (control regional shipping emissions) based on current fuel price. A social cost method shows the regional control scenarios benefit-cost ratios vary from 4.3 to 5.1 with large uncertainty. Chemical transportation model combined with health model method is used to get the monetary health benefits and then compared with the results from social cost method. This study suggests that Chinese DECAs will reduce the projected emissions at a favorable benefit-cost ratio, and furthermore proposes policy combinations that provide high cost-effective benefits as a reference for future policy-making.
自 2015 年以来，中国已建立国内排放控制区（DECA）以限制不断增加的航运排放。然而，由于缺乏定量评估，未来的 DECA 政策制定缺乏依据。为了研究当前和可能的中国 DECA 政策的影响，本文建立了一个模型，用于预测航运排放，并评估 2020 年设定的 DECA 政策方案的潜在成本和效益。该模型考虑了船舶类型、燃料消耗和船舶运输量增长等因素，涵盖了港口和区域两个层面。结果表明，如果不采取控制措施，2013 年至 2020 年，京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区的 SO 和颗粒物（PM）排放量预计将分别增加 15.3-61.2%。然而，建立 DECA 可以减少大部分排放，其减排效果取决于控制区的规模和燃料含硫量限制。基于当前燃料价格，建立 DECA 的成本范围为 0.667 亿至 1.561 亿美元。社会成本法显示，区域控制情景的效益成本比在 4.3 到 5.1 之间，具有较大的不确定性。本文采用化学输送模型与健康模型相结合的方法来获得货币健康效益，并将其与社会成本法的结果进行比较。研究表明，中国的 DECA 将以有利的效益成本比减少预期排放量，并进一步提出了具有高成本效益的政策组合，为未来的政策制定提供参考。
