Antturi Jim, Hänninen Otto, Jalkanen Jukka-Pekka, Johansson Lasse, Prank Marje, Sofiev Mikhail, Ollikainen Markku
University of Helsinki, Department of Economics and Management, Latokartanonkaari 7, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014, Finland.
National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL Health Protection, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701 Kuopio, Finland.
J Environ Manage. 2016 Dec 15;184(Pt 2):431-440. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.09.064. Epub 2016 Oct 11.
The maximum allowable fuel sulphur content for shipping in the Baltic Sea dropped from 1%S to 0.1%S in 1 January 2015. We provide a cost-benefit analysis of the sulphur reduction policy in the Baltic Sea Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA). We calculated the abatement costs based on shipowners' optimal decision-making in choosing between low-sulphur fuel and a sulphur scrubber, and the benefits were modelled through a high-resolution impact pathway analysis, which took into account the formation and dispersion of the emissions, and considered the positive health impacts resulting from lowered ambient PM concentrations. Our basic result indicates that for the Baltic Sea only, the latest sulphur regulation is not cost-effective. The expected annual cost is roughly €465 M and benefit 2200 saved Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) or monetized €105 M. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the benefits yet have a potential to exceed the costs. The analysis neither takes into account the acidifying impact of sulphur nor the impact North Sea shipping has on the cost-benefit ratio. Lastly, a similar approach is found highly recommendable to study the implications of the upcoming Tier III NO standard for shipping.
2015年1月1日，波罗的海航运的最大允许燃油含硫量从1%S降至0.1%S。我们对波罗的海硫排放控制区（SECA）的硫减排政策进行了成本效益分析。我们根据船东在选择低硫燃料和脱硫器之间的最优决策来计算减排成本，并通过高分辨率影响路径分析对效益进行建模，该分析考虑了排放的形成和扩散，并考虑了环境中颗粒物浓度降低所带来的积极健康影响。我们的基本结果表明，仅就波罗的海而言，最新的硫法规并不具有成本效益。预计每年成本约为4.65亿欧元，效益为节省2200个伤残调整生命年（DALY）或货币化的1.05亿欧元。基于我们的敏感性分析，效益仍有可能超过成本。该分析既未考虑硫的酸化影响，也未考虑北海航运对成本效益比的影响。最后，人们发现采用类似方法来研究即将出台的航运Tier III NO标准的影响是非常可取的。
