Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany.
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jun 19;7(1):3813. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-03566-3.
The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.
基孔肯雅热是一种由蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，近年来在美洲的迅速传播是最重要的公共卫生事件之一，它先于寨卡病毒的传播，并与之相呼应。贸易和旅行的全球化可能导致这些病毒的输入，但气候条件强烈影响当地传播的效率。为了指导未来疫情的防范工作，有必要预测可能适合基孔肯雅热传播的全球区域。在这里，我们提出了基孔肯雅热本地传播的全球关联生态位模型。这些模型被用作代表浓度途径（RCP）4.5 和 8.5 气候变化情景下的预测基础。在进一步的步骤中，制作了考虑人口密度的危险图。基线模型成功划定了当前基孔肯雅热传播的活跃地区。RCP 4.5 和 8.5 情景下的预测表明，包括中国、撒哈拉以南非洲、南美洲、美国和欧洲大陆在内的世界许多地区传播适宜地区扩大的可能性。这里提出的模型可用于在高度互联的世界中为公共卫生防范规划提供信息。
