Mengel Matthias, Nauels Alexander, Rogelj Joeri, Schleussner Carl-Friedrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany.
Australian-German College of Climate and Energy Transitions, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia.
Nat Commun. 2018 Feb 20;9(1):601. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8.
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.
海平面上升是气候变化的一个主要后果，在温室气体排放停止后仍将持续很长时间。2015年《巴黎协定》旨在通过将温室气体排放降至净零并限制全球平均气温上升来降低气候相关风险。在此，我们量化了这些限制因素对到2300年全球海平面上升的影响，包括南极冰盖的不稳定性。我们估计，如果到2300年持续实现温室气体净零排放，海平面上升的中位数在0.7至1.2米之间，这随本世纪的排放路径而变化。将温度稳定在2°C以下不足以使到2300年海平面上升的中位数保持在1.5米以下。我们发现，CO排放近期达到峰值每延迟5年，到2300年海平面上升的中位数估计值将增加约0.2米，在第95百分位的极端海平面上升估计值将增加高达1米。我们的结果强调了近期减缓行动对于限制长期海平面上升风险的重要性。
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