Mengel Matthias, Levermann Anders, Frieler Katja, Robinson Alexander, Marzeion Ben, Winkelmann Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Physics Institute, Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, Germany;
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Physics Institute, Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, Germany; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Mar 8;113(10):2597-602. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1500515113. Epub 2016 Feb 22.
Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.
在过去的一个世纪里，海平面一直在稳步上升，这主要是由于人为气候变化。随着全球持续变暖，海平面上升的速度将不断加快，而且，即使通过逐步淘汰温室气体排放使气温稳定下来，预计海平面仍将持续上升几个世纪。这将影响全球沿海地区，因此需要可靠的预测来评估缓解方案并指导适应措施。在这里，我们将海平面上升主要贡献因素的平衡响应与其上个世纪观测到的贡献相结合，以限制未来海平面上升的预测。我们的模型针对每个贡献因素的一组观测数据进行了校准，并将观测和气候不确定性结合起来，得出21世纪海平面上升的不确定性范围。我们预测，在温室气体浓度情景RCP26、RCP45和RCP85下，到2100年人为导致的海平面上升分别为28 - 56厘米、37 - 77厘米和57 - 131厘米。我们对海平面总上升的不确定性范围与政府间气候变化专门委员会基于过程的估计结果有重叠。“约束外推”方法推广了早期的全球半经验模型，因此可能有助于更好地理解与基于过程的预测之间的差异。
