Brain Function Research Group, School of Physiology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
School of Human Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia.
J Anim Ecol. 2018 Jul;87(4):956-973. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12818. Epub 2018 Mar 30.
The accuracy of predictive models (also known as mechanistic or causal models) of animal responses to climate change depends on properly incorporating the principles of heat transfer and thermoregulation into those models. Regrettably, proper incorporation of these principles is not always evident. We have revisited the relevant principles of thermal physiology and analysed how they have been applied in predictive models of large mammals, which are particularly vulnerable, to climate change. We considered dry heat exchange, evaporative heat transfer, the thermoneutral zone and homeothermy, and we examined the roles of size and shape in the thermal physiology of large mammals. We report on the following misconceptions in influential predictive models: underestimation of the role of radiant heat transfer, misassignment of the role and misunderstanding of the sustainability of evaporative cooling, misinterpretation of the thermoneutral zone as a zone of thermal tolerance or as a zone of sustainable energetics, confusion of upper critical temperature and critical thermal maximum, overestimation of the metabolic energy cost of evaporative cooling, failure to appreciate that the current advantages of size and shape will become disadvantageous as climate change advances, misassumptions about skin temperature and, lastly, misconceptions about the relationship between body core temperature and its variability with body mass in large mammals. Not all misconceptions invalidate the models, but we believe that preventing inappropriate assumptions from propagating will improve model accuracy, especially as models progress beyond their current typically static format to include genetic and epigenetic adaptation that can result in phenotypic plasticity.
预测模型（也称为机械或因果模型）对动物对气候变化反应的准确性取决于将热传递和体温调节的原理正确纳入这些模型中。遗憾的是，这些原理的正确纳入并不总是显而易见的。我们重新审视了热生理学的相关原理，并分析了它们如何应用于对气候变化特别脆弱的大型哺乳动物的预测模型中。我们考虑了干燥热交换、蒸发散热、热中性区和恒温，研究了大小和形状在大型哺乳动物热生理学中的作用。我们报告了以下有影响力的预测模型中的误解：低估了辐射热传递的作用，错误分配了蒸发冷却的作用和对其可持续性的误解，错误地将热中性区解释为热耐受区或可持续能量区，混淆了上限临界温度和临界热最大值，高估了蒸发冷却的代谢能量成本，未能认识到随着气候变化的推进，大小和形状的当前优势将变得不利，对皮肤温度的误解，以及最后，对大型哺乳动物的体核温度与其与体重的可变性之间关系的误解。并非所有的误解都会使模型无效，但我们相信，防止不适当的假设传播将提高模型的准确性，特别是随着模型从当前通常的静态格式发展到包括可以导致表型可塑性的遗传和表观遗传适应。
