McCann Ryan S, Kosik Kyle B, Terada Masafumi, Beard Megan Q, Buskirk Gretchen E, Gribble Phillip A
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA.
University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Int J Sports Phys Ther. 2018 Feb;13(1):12-18.
Women's soccer has among the highest injury rates in collegiate sports, and lateral ankle sprains (LAS) are among the most commonly occurring injuries in that athletic population. However, no established LAS prediction model exists for collegiate women's soccer players.The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for acute LAS injuries in collegiate women's soccer players utilizing previous ankle sprain history, height, mass, and BMI as potential predictors.The authors' hypothesized that collegiate women's soccer players with greater height, mass, and body mass index (BMI), as well as a previous history of ankle sprain would have greater odds of sustaining a LAS.
Prospective cohort study.
Forty-three NCAA Division I women's soccer players' (19.7 ± 1.1yrs, 166.8 ± 3.7cm, 60.8 ± 4.4kg) height, mass, and BMI were measured one week before beginning preseason practices. Additionally, participants reported whether or not they had sustained a previous ankle sprain. The team athletic trainer tracked LASs over the competitive season. Independent t-tests, binary logistic regression analyses, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and diagnostic statistics assessed the ability of the variables to differentiate between those that did and did not sustain a LAS.
Participants that sustained a LAS (n = 8) were significantly taller than those that did not sustain a LAS (n = 35) (t = -2.87, p = 0.01, = 0.83[0.03,1.60]). A logistic regression analysis (odds ratio=1.30[1.00,1.70]) and area under the ROC curve analysis (AUROC=0.73[0.58,0.89], p=0.04) further exhibited predictive value of height. A height cutoff score of 167.6cm demonstrated excellent sensitivity (0.88), moderate specificity (0.51), and a favorable diagnostic odds ratio (7.5). A logistic regression analysis (odds ratio=1.87[1.22,1.98]) exhibited predictive value of previous ankle sprain history. That variable was also associated with good sensitivity (0.75) and specificity (0.71) within the model, as well as a favorable DOR (7.37). Mass and BMI demonstrated no predictive value for LAS.
Taller collegiate women's soccer players and those with previous ankle sprain history may have a greater predisposition to LAS.
1b.
女子足球在大学体育项目中的受伤率位居前列，而外侧脚踝扭伤（LAS）是该运动人群中最常见的损伤之一。然而，目前尚无针对大学女子足球运动员的既定LAS预测模型。本研究的目的是利用既往脚踝扭伤史、身高、体重和体重指数（BMI）作为潜在预测因素，为大学女子足球运动员的急性LAS损伤建立一个预测模型。作者假设身高更高、体重更大、体重指数（BMI）更高以及有既往脚踝扭伤史的大学女子足球运动员发生LAS的几率更高。
前瞻性队列研究。
在季前训练开始前一周，测量了43名美国全国大学体育协会（NCAA）一级女子足球运动员（年龄19.7±1.1岁，身高166.8±3.7厘米，体重60.8±4.4千克）的身高、体重和BMI。此外，参与者报告了她们是否有过脚踝扭伤史。球队运动训练师在整个赛季中跟踪LAS情况。采用独立样本t检验、二元逻辑回归分析、受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和诊断统计方法，评估这些变量区分发生LAS和未发生LAS的能力。
发生LAS的参与者（n = 8）显著高于未发生LAS的参与者（n = 35）（t = -2.87，p = 0.01，效应量 = 0.83[0.03,1.60]）。逻辑回归分析（比值比 = 1.30[1.00,1.70]）和ROC曲线下面积分析（AUROC = 0.73[0.58,0.89]，p = 0.04）进一步显示了身高的预测价值。身高截断值为167.6厘米时，显示出极佳的敏感性（0.88）、中等特异性（0.51）和良好的诊断比值比（7.5）。逻辑回归分析（比值比 = 1.87[1.22,1.98]）显示了既往脚踝扭伤史的预测价值。该变量在模型中还具有良好的敏感性（0.75）和特异性（0.71），以及良好的诊断比值比（7.37）。体重和BMI对LAS无预测价值。
身高较高的大学女子足球运动员和有既往脚踝扭伤史的运动员可能更易发生LAS。
1b。
