Suppr超能文献

一种使用R-INLA对次国家区域死亡率的地理变异进行映射的贝叶斯时空建模方法。

A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

作者信息

Khana Diba, Rossen Lauren M, Hedegaard Holly, Warner Margaret

机构信息

Division of Research Methodology, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD 207822.

Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD 20782.

出版信息

J Data Sci. 2018 Jan;16(1):147-182.

Abstract

Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

摘要

分层贝叶斯模型已被用于疾病地图绘制,以研究小规模的地理变异。已有关于死亡率结果中较不常见病因的州级地理变异的报道,然而县级变异很少被研究。出于对统计可靠性和保密性的担忧,根据国家卫生统计中心(NCHS)生命统计部门的统计可靠性标准,基于少于20例死亡的县级死亡率数据被抑制,这使得无法使用直接估计方法研究县级层面上诸如自杀率(SRs)等较不常见死亡率结果的时空变异。现有的贝叶斯时空建模策略可通过R语言中的集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)应用于大量罕见的死亡率结果病因,以便在更小的地理尺度(如县)上研究时空变异。这种方法允许研究整个美国的时空变异,即使在数据稀疏的地区也是如此。我们使用2005 - 2015年的死亡率数据来探索自杀率的时空变异,这是贝叶斯时空建模策略在R-INLA中的一个具体应用,用于预测特定年份和特定县的自杀率。具体而言,在软件R-INLA中使用具有空间结构化和非结构化随机效应、相关时间效应、随时间变化的混杂因素以及时空交互项的分层贝叶斯时空模型,利用各县和各年份的数据来生成平滑的县级自杀率。基于模型的自杀率估计值被绘制出来以探索地理变异。

相似文献

2
Spatiotemporal trends in teen birth rates in the USA, 2003-2012.
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2018 Jan;181(1):35-58. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12266. Epub 2017 Jan 19.
4
Comparing INLA and OpenBUGS for hierarchical Poisson modeling in disease mapping.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2015 Jul-Oct;14-15:45-54. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2015.08.001. Epub 2015 Aug 11.
8
Spatial and spatio-temporal models with R-INLA.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2013 Dec;7:39-55. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2013.07.003.
9
Online relative risks/rates estimation in spatial and spatio-temporal disease mapping.
Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2019 Apr;172:103-116. doi: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2019.02.014. Epub 2019 Feb 25.

引用本文的文献

1
Changes in the association between county industrial composition and working-age mortality from 2000 to 2022.
SSM Popul Health. 2025 Jul 29;31:101849. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2025.101849. eCollection 2025 Sep.
3
4
Assessing access: Texting hotline app provides mental health crisis care for economically deprived youth.
Soc Sci Med. 2024 Nov;361:117369. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117369. Epub 2024 Sep 26.
5
Reliable event rates for disease mapping.
J Off Stat. 2024 Jun;40(2):333-347. doi: 10.1177/0282423x241244917. Epub 2024 May 22.
6
Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 Aug 5;18(8):e0012296. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012296. eCollection 2024 Aug.
8
Modelling spatiotemporal variation in under-five malaria risk in Ghana in 2016-2021.
Malar J. 2024 Apr 9;23(1):102. doi: 10.1186/s12936-024-04918-x.
10
Forecasting freshwater cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms for Sentinel-3 satellite resolved U.S. lakes and reservoirs.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Jan 1;349:119518. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119518. Epub 2023 Nov 7.

本文引用的文献

1
A note on intrinsic conditional autoregressive models for disconnected graphs.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2018 Aug;26:25-34. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2018.04.002. Epub 2018 May 23.
2
Spatiotemporal trends in teen birth rates in the USA, 2003-2012.
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2018 Jan;181(1):35-58. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12266. Epub 2017 Jan 19.
3
Economic Recession, Alcohol, and Suicide Rates: Comparative Effects of Poverty, Foreclosure, and Job Loss.
Am J Prev Med. 2017 Apr;52(4):469-475. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2016.09.021. Epub 2016 Nov 14.
4
Explaining geographic patterns of suicide in the US: the role of firearms and antidepressants.
Inj Epidemiol. 2014 Dec;1(1):6. doi: 10.1186/2197-1714-1-6. Epub 2014 Mar 20.
5
Deaths: Final Data for 2014.
Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2016 Jun;65(4):1-122.
6
Firearm Ownership and Suicide Rates Among US Men and Women, 1981-2013.
Am J Public Health. 2016 Jul;106(7):1316-22. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2016.303182. Epub 2016 May 19.
7
Increase in Suicide in the United States, 1999-2014.
NCHS Data Brief. 2016 Apr(241):1-8.
8
Variable Classification of Drug-Intoxication Suicides across US States: A Partial Artifact of Forensics?
PLoS One. 2015 Aug 21;10(8):e0135296. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135296. eCollection 2015.
10
Rising suicide among adults aged 40-64 years: the role of job and financial circumstances.
Am J Prev Med. 2015 May;48(5):491-500. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2014.11.006. Epub 2015 Feb 27.

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验