Krasil'nikov V R, Kurolap S A
Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 1987 Feb(2):39-42.
Investigations carried out in Voronezh Province have shown that the activity of the foci of rabies is poorly related to the changes in the fox population. For the prognostication of the situation to be expected, good promise is held in the use of such data as the size of the population of murine rodents and the climatic conditions of the autumn and winter period. Rises in rabies morbidity are observed following an increase in the number of murine rodents (26% and higher) in autumn and a sharp decrease in their number by the spring of the epizootic year, and also if in the preceding year autumn began early and temperatures in winter and spring were above the average level, flood came quickly and water levels were low. It is expedient to use these regularities for the short-term prognosis of the epidemiological situation.
在沃罗涅日省开展的调查表明，狂犬病疫源地的活动与狐狸种群数量的变化关系不大。为了预测未来的情况，利用诸如家栖鼠类种群数量以及秋冬季节的气候条件等数据很有前景。在秋季家栖鼠类数量增加（26%及以上）且在 epizootic 年春季数量急剧减少时，以及如果前一年秋季开始较早且冬季和春季气温高于平均水平、洪水迅速到来且水位较低时，狂犬病发病率会上升。利用这些规律来进行流行病学形势的短期预测是适宜的。 （注：epizootic 这个词在流行病学领域有特定含义，这里保留英文未翻译，因为在医学专业语境中有时保留英文更准确传达专业概念，具体可根据实际情况灵活处理，比如如果是面向大众科普性文本，可考虑翻译为“动物流行病的”等合适表述）
