Bai Lei, Liu Zhenqiu, Fang Qiwen, Yan Qiong, Shi Oumin, Bao Pingping, Mu Lina, Chen Xingdong, Zhang Tiejun
Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Clin Epidemiol. 2018 Mar 9;10:277-288. doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S153951. eCollection 2018.
In 2012, liver cancer ranked as the fifth and eighth most common cancer in men and women, respectively, in urban Shanghai. This study aims to present the trend and projection of age-specific incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai.
We extracted data of liver cancer incident cases and deaths between 1973 and 2012. An age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the data.
A total of 47,344 men and 18,692 women were diagnosed with liver cancer from 1973 to 2012. The overall age-standardized incidence was 26.89 and 8.89 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Correspondingly, a total of 44,355 and 18,084 men and women died from liver cancer during this period. The overall age-standardized death rate was 25.34 per 100,000 in men and 9.39 per 100,000 in women. Between 1973 and 2012, liver cancer incidence and mortality in all age groups, except people aged 0-19 years, experienced a significant decline. Similar temporal patterns were detected in liver cancer mortality in both sexes when compared with incidence. Liver cancer incidence and mortality are expected to further decline among all age groups in 2013-2020 in both sexes, though the numbers of incident cases will remain stable.
Incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai have decreased by about 40% and 50%, respectively, over the past four decades. This decline is expected to continue in the near future. However, the population is aging, which is reflected in the increasing crude rates and decreasing age-adjusted rates.
2012年，在上海市区，肝癌分别是男性和女性中第五和第八大常见癌症。本研究旨在呈现上海肝癌年龄别发病率和死亡率的趋势及预测。
我们提取了1973年至2012年间肝癌发病病例和死亡数据。采用年龄-时期-队列模型对数据进行分析。
1973年至2012年期间，共有47344名男性和18692名女性被诊断为肝癌。男性和女性的总体年龄标准化发病率分别为每10万人26.89例和8.89例。相应地，在此期间共有44355名男性和18084名女性死于肝癌。男性的总体年龄标准化死亡率为每10万人25.34例，女性为每10万人9.39例。1973年至2012年期间，除0至19岁人群外，所有年龄组的肝癌发病率和死亡率均显著下降。与发病率相比，两性肝癌死亡率呈现出相似的时间模式。预计2013年至2020年期间，两性所有年龄组的肝癌发病率和死亡率将进一步下降，尽管发病病例数将保持稳定。
在过去四十年中，上海市区肝癌的发病率和死亡率分别下降了约40%和50%。预计在不久的将来这种下降趋势将持续。然而，人口正在老龄化，这体现在粗率上升和年龄调整率下降上。
