中国上海癌症发病趋势预测：老龄化人口带来的负担。
Future of cancer incidence in Shanghai, China: Predicting the burden upon the ageing population.
机构信息
State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Fudan University), Ministry of Education, China; Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, China.
State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, China.
出版信息
Cancer Epidemiol. 2019 Jun;60:8-15. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.03.004. Epub 2019 Mar 14.
AIM
The age-specific cancer patterns have changed significantly over the last few decades in urban Shanghai. Predicting the cancer incidence in an ageing population can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform further research studies.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Annual cancer cases and population data from 1988 to 2013 were collected from Shanghai Cancer Registry. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the future cancer incidence with demographical changes from 2014 to 2025.
RESULTS
From 1988 through 2013, the urban population aged < 65 years decreased by 19.5%, while the population aged ≥ 65 years increased by 58.4%. In the same period, cancer cases increased by 66.0% (from 8315 to 13,806) and 88.6% (from 7448 to 14,048) in these two populations, respectively. From 2014-2025, the population size is expected to decrease by an additional 29.6% in people aged < 65 years, while it will increase by an additional 68.3% in people aged ≥ 65 years. Correspondingly, the model predicts an 87.5% and 143.4% increase in cancer cases for these two populations, respectively. The most pronounced increase was found in thyroid cancer in both sexes, followed by prostate, kidney, and colon cancer in men. In women, lung, kidney, and cervical cancer in women was expected to increase.
CONCLUSIONS
The number of cancer cases in urban Shanghai, especially in older people, is expected to significantly increase in the next decade. Particular strategies targeting the elderly are required to combat the cancers.
目的
过去几十年中，上海市区的特定年龄癌症模式发生了显著变化。预测老龄化人口中的癌症发病率有助于预测未来的资源需求，评估初级预防策略，并为进一步的研究提供信息。
材料和方法
从上海癌症登记处收集了 1988 年至 2013 年的年度癌症病例和人口数据。应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型，根据人口变化预测 2014 年至 2025 年的未来癌症发病率。
结果
1988 年至 2013 年，年龄<65 岁的城市人口减少了 19.5%，而年龄≥65 岁的人口增加了 58.4%。同期，这两个年龄段的癌症病例分别增加了 66.0%（从 8315 例增加到 13806 例）和 88.6%（从 7448 例增加到 14048 例）。2014 年至 2025 年，年龄<65 岁的人口预计将减少 29.6%，而年龄≥65 岁的人口将增加 68.3%。相应地，该模型预测这两个年龄段的癌症病例将分别增加 87.5%和 143.4%。男女两性甲状腺癌的增幅最为显著，其次是前列腺癌、肾癌和结肠癌。在女性中，预计肺癌、肾癌和宫颈癌将增加。
结论
未来十年，上海市区的癌症病例数量，尤其是老年人的癌症病例数量预计将显著增加。需要针对老年人制定特定策略来防治癌症。
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