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Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects.

作者信息

Bao Ping-Ping, Zheng Ying, Wu Chun-Xiao, Huang Zhe-Zhou, Gao Yu-Tang, Jin Fan, Xiang Yong-Bing, Zhong Wei-Jian, Lu Wei, Wu Fan

机构信息

Department of Cancer Control & Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, 200336, People's Republic of China.

Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

BMC Cancer. 2016 Apr 21;16:284. doi: 10.1186/s12885-016-2313-2.


DOI:10.1186/s12885-016-2313-2
PMID:27102013
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4839149/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: To provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973-2010 in urban Shanghai. METHODS: The estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) for the whole period and for the time segments in age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were evaluated with Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were modeled to examine the effects of age, period and birth cohort on cancer incidence. RESULTS: The overall ASR decreased slightly and significantly in males (EAPC of -0.41) but increased significantly in females (EAPC of 0.57) during 1973-2010 in urban Shanghai. The incidence trend was not linear and varied by time segments. During the most recent 10 years (2001-2010), the ASR in males decreased by 1.65% per year and stabilized in females. Incidence rates continued to decline during 1973-2010 for esophagus, stomach, and liver cancer in both sexes, as well as male lung cancer and cervix cancer. It should be noted that it was the first time to document a significant decline in lung cancer incidence among males during 1973-2010 with EAPC of -0.58%, and a notable upward for cervix cancer since 1996 with EAPC of 8.94%. Unfavorable trends in incidence were observed for the most common cancer sites in the 38 years period: colorectum, gallbladder & biliary tract, pancreas, kidney, bladder, brain & central nervous system (CNS), thyroid, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), prostate, female breast, corpus uteri, and ovary. APC analysis showed age, period and birth cohort yielded different effects by cancer sites. CONCLUSIONS: The observed trends primarily reflect dramatic changes in socioeconomic development and lifestyles in urban Shanghai over the past four decades.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/43f8/4839149/273ccec0c854/12885_2016_2313_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/43f8/4839149/598f8374950c/12885_2016_2313_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/43f8/4839149/273ccec0c854/12885_2016_2313_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/43f8/4839149/598f8374950c/12885_2016_2313_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/43f8/4839149/273ccec0c854/12885_2016_2313_Fig2_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects.

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[2]
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[3]
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[4]
Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
Metformin Use and Survival in Patients with Advanced Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Single-Center Cohort Study in Fuyang, China.

Gastroenterol Res Pract. 2021-10-29

本文引用的文献

[1]
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Surg Oncol. 2014-6

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Cancer. 2012-3-28

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Nat Rev Urol. 2010-5

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Prevention of hepatitis B in China: achievements and challenges.

Chin Med J (Engl). 2009-12-20

[10]
A birth cohort analysis of the incidence of papillary thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2004.

Thyroid. 2009-10

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