CIMAB - Interuniversity Centre for Mathematics Applied to Biology, Medicine, and Environmental Sciences, Italy.
ADAMSS - Centre for Advanced Applied Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Universitá degli Studi di Milano "La Statale", Via Saldini 50, Milano 20133, Italy.
Math Biosci. 2018 Jun;300:87-101. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.024. Epub 2018 Mar 28.
In this paper a conceptual mathematical model of malaria transmission proposed in a previous paper has been analyzed in a deeper detail. Among its key epidemiological features of this model, two-age-classes (child and adult) and asymptomatic carriers have been included. The extra mortality of mosquitoes due to the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) has been included too. By taking advantage of the natural double time scale of the parasite and the human populations, it has been possible to provide interesting threshold results. In particular it has been shown that key parameters can be identified such that below a threshold level, built on these parameters, the epidemic tends to extinction, while above another threshold level it tends to a nontrivial endemic state, for which an interval estimate has been provided. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results.
本文对之前一篇论文中提出的疟疾传播概念数学模型进行了更深入的分析。该模型的关键流行病学特征包括两龄组（儿童和成人）和无症状感染者。模型还考虑了由于使用长效驱虫蚊帐（LLIN）和室内滞留喷洒（IRS）而导致的蚊子额外死亡率。利用寄生虫和人群的自然双时间尺度，我们可以提供有趣的阈值结果。特别是，已经表明可以确定关键参数，使得在基于这些参数的阈值以下，传染病趋于灭绝，而在另一个阈值以上，传染病趋于非平凡的地方病状态，并且提供了一个区间估计。数值模拟证实了分析结果。
