LUT School of Engineering Science, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta, Finland.
Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Morogoro, United Republic of Tanzania; Vector Biology Department, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, UK.
Math Biosci. 2018 Jan;295:36-47. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.10.005. Epub 2017 Oct 12.
The efficiency of spatial repellents and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) is a key research topic in malaria control. Insecticidal nets reduce the mosquito-human contact rate and simultaneously decrease mosquito populations. However, LLINs demonstrate dissimilar efficiency against different species of malaria mosquitoes. Various factors have been proposed as an explanation, including differences in insecticide-induced mortality, flight characteristics, or persistence of attack. Here we present a discrete agent-based approach that enables the efficiency of LLINs, baited traps and Insecticide Residual Sprays (IRS) to be examined. The model is calibrated with hut-level experimental data to compare the efficiency of protection against two mosquito species: Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis. We show that while such data does not allow an unambiguous identification of the details of how LLINs alter the vector behavior, the model calibrations quantify the overall impact of LLINs for the two different mosquito species. The simulations are generalized to community-scale scenarios that systematically demonstrate the lower efficiency of the LLINs in control of An. arabiensis compared to An. gambiae.
空间驱避剂和长效驱虫蚊帐（LLINs）的效率是疟疾控制的一个关键研究课题。驱虫蚊帐减少了蚊子与人的接触率，同时降低了蚊子的数量。然而，LLINs 对不同种类的疟蚊的效果并不相同。各种因素被提出作为解释，包括杀虫剂诱导的死亡率、飞行特征或攻击的持久性的差异。在这里，我们提出了一种基于离散代理的方法，可以用来检验 LLINs、诱蚊陷阱和杀虫剂残留喷雾（IRS）的效率。该模型用小屋级别的实验数据进行了校准，以比较对两种蚊子（冈比亚按蚊和阿拉伯按蚊）的保护效率。我们表明，尽管这种数据并不能明确确定 LLINs 如何改变媒介行为的细节，但模型校准量化了 LLINs 对两种不同蚊子的总体影响。模拟结果推广到社区规模的场景，系统地表明 LLINs 在控制阿拉伯按蚊方面的效率低于冈比亚按蚊。
