Eyre Nick, Darby Sarah J, Grünewald Philipp, McKenna Eoghan, Ford Rebecca
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2018 May 13;376(2119). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0462.
A 1.5°C global average target implies that we should no longer focus on merely incremental emissions reductions from the electricity system, but rather on fundamentally re-envisaging a system that, sooner rather than later, becomes carbon free. Many low-carbon technologies are surpassing mainstream predictions for both uptake and cost reduction. Their deployment is beginning to be disruptive within established systems. 'Smart technologies' are being developed to address emerging challenges of system integration, but their rates of future deployment remain uncertain. We argue that transition towards a system that can fully displace carbon generation sources will require expanding the focus of our efforts beyond technical solutions. Recognizing that change has social and technical dimensions, and that these interact strongly, we set out a socio-technical review that covers electricity infrastructure, citizens, business models and governance. It describes some of the socio-technical challenges that need to be addressed for the successful transition of the existing electricity systems. We conclude that a socio-technical understanding of electricity system transitions offers new and better insights into the potential and challenges for rapid decarbonization.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
全球平均升温1.5°C的目标意味着，我们不应再仅仅关注电力系统排放量的逐步减少，而应从根本上重新构想一个尽早实现无碳的系统。许多低碳技术在采用率和成本降低方面都超过了主流预测。它们的部署开始在现有系统中产生颠覆性影响。“智能技术”正在开发中，以应对系统集成中出现的新挑战，但其未来的部署速度仍不确定。我们认为，向一个能够完全取代碳发电来源的系统过渡，需要将我们的努力重点从技术解决方案扩展出去。认识到变革具有社会和技术层面，且二者相互作用强烈，我们开展了一项社会技术审查，涵盖电力基础设施、公民、商业模式和治理。它描述了现有电力系统成功转型需要应对的一些社会技术挑战。我们得出结论，对电力系统转型的社会技术理解为快速脱碳的潜力和挑战提供了新的、更好的见解。本文是主题为“《巴黎协定》：理解比工业化前水平高出1.5°C的变暖世界所面临的自然和社会挑战”的一部分。
