Minnesota Department of Corrections.
Department of Sociology, Bates College.
Law Hum Behav. 2018 Jun;42(3):269-279. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000277. Epub 2018 Apr 5.
When sex offenders in Minnesota are assigned risk levels prior to their release from prison, correctional staff frequently exercise professional judgment by overriding the presumptive risk level per an offender's score on the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (MnSOST-3), a sexual recidivism risk-assessment instrument. These overrides enabled us to evaluate whether the use of professional judgment resulted in better predictive performance than did reliance on "actuarial" judgment (MnSOST-3). Using multiple metrics, we also compared the performance of a home-grown instrument (the MnSOST-3) with a global assessment (the revised version of the Static-99 [Static-99R]) in predicting sexual recidivism for 650 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons in 2012. The results showed that use of professional judgment led to a significant degradation in predictive performance. Likewise, the MnSOST-3 outperformed the Static-99R for both sexual recidivism measures (rearrest and reconviction) across most of the performance metrics we used. These results imply that actuarial tools and home-grown tools are preferred relative to those that include professional judgment and those developed on different populations. (PsycINFO Database Record
当明尼苏达州的性犯罪者在出狱前被分配风险级别时，惩教人员经常通过推翻罪犯在明尼苏达州性犯罪者筛查工具-3（MnSOST-3）上的得分所假定的风险级别来行使专业判断，这是一种性累犯风险评估工具。这些推翻使我们能够评估专业判断的使用是否比依赖“精算”判断（MnSOST-3）产生了更好的预测性能。我们还使用多种指标，将一种国产工具（MnSOST-3）与全球评估（修订版静态-99[Static-99R]）在预测 2012 年从明尼苏达州监狱释放的 650 名性犯罪者的性累犯方面的表现进行了比较。结果表明，使用专业判断会导致预测性能显著下降。同样，对于我们使用的大多数性能指标，MnSOST-3 在两种性累犯指标（再逮捕和再定罪）上均优于静态-99R。这些结果表明，相对于那些包含专业判断和针对不同人群开发的判断，精算工具和国产工具更受欢迎。
