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测试静态-99R 作为挪威常规样本中性犯罪再犯风险的全球筛查工具。

Testing the Static-99R as a Global Screen for Risk of Sex Crime Recidivism in a Norwegian Routine Sample.

机构信息

Oslo University Hospital, Norway.

University of Oslo, Norway.

出版信息

Sex Abuse. 2021 Sep;33(6):725-742. doi: 10.1177/1079063220951194. Epub 2020 Aug 22.

Abstract

The Static-99R has been recommended for use as a first global screen for sorting out sex-convicted persons who are in need of further risk assessment. This study investigated the Static-99R's predictive validity based on a nonselected Norwegian sample ( = 858) of persons released from prison after having served a sex crime sentence. After a mean observation period of 2,183 days, 3.4% ( = 29) had recidivated to a new sex offense. A higher number of recidivists were found among those with higher Static-99R total scores. The predictive contribution from each of the ten Static-99R risk items was investigated using standard logistic regression, proportional hazard regression, and random forest classification algorithm. The overall results indicate that the Static-99R is relevant as a risk screen in a Norwegian context, providing similar results concerning predictive accuracy as previous studies.

摘要

静态-99R 已被推荐用于作为筛选需要进一步风险评估的性犯罪者的第一道全球筛选工具。本研究基于一个非选择的挪威样本(=858)进行了静态-99R 的预测有效性调查,这些人在服刑性犯罪判决后被释放出狱。在平均观察期为 2183 天后,有 3.4%(=29)人再次犯下新的性犯罪。在静态-99R 总分较高的人中,累犯人数较多。使用标准逻辑回归、比例风险回归和随机森林分类算法,研究了十个静态-99R 风险项目中的每一个的预测贡献。总体结果表明,静态-99R 在挪威语境下作为风险筛选是相关的,提供了与之前研究相似的预测准确性结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/180f/8371679/12d663b68a5b/10.1177_1079063220951194-fig1.jpg

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