Population Health Research Group, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Heart Health, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Tob Control. 2019 Mar;28(2):233-236. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-054194. Epub 2018 Apr 7.
Smoking rates have been compared with a spring, requiring continuous downward pressure against protobacco forces, rather than a screw, which once driven down stays down. Quality antitobacco mass media campaigns put downward pressure on smoking rates. The suspension of a major Australian state campaign provided a natural experiment to assess effects on smoking. Furthermore, we document the positive influence of robust monitoring and mature advocacy on the political decision to reinstate funding. We also document the misuse by industry of South Australian smoking data from the period between Australia's implementation and subsequent evaluation of plain packaging.
A time series analysis was used to examine monthly smoking prevalence trends at each of four intervention points: (A) commencement of high-intensity mass media campaign (August 2010); (B) introduction of plain packaging (December 2012), (C) defunding of campaign (July 2013); and (D) reinstatement of moderate-intensity campaign (July 2014).
The suspension of the antitobacco campaign was disruptive to achieving smoking prevalence targets. There was an absence of a downward monthly smoking prevalence trajectory during the non-campaign period. Moreover, there was a significant decline in smoking prevalence during the period of high-intensity advertising, which continued after the introduction of plain packaging laws, and at the recommencement of campaign activity.
While the observed declines in smoking prevalence are likely due to a combination of interventions and cannot be attributed exclusively to antitobacco advertising, the results reinforce the political decision to reinstate the campaign and demonstrate the need for maintained investment to keep downward pressure on smoking rates.
吸烟率的比较犹如春天，需要持续对反烟草势力施加向下的压力，而不是像螺丝，一旦被旋入就保持不动。高质量的反烟草大众媒体宣传活动对吸烟率施加了向下的压力。澳大利亚一个主要州的宣传活动暂停提供了一个自然实验，以评估其对吸烟的影响。此外，我们记录了有力的监测和成熟的宣传对恢复资金的政治决策的积极影响。我们还记录了行业在澳大利亚实施和随后评估普通包装期间滥用南澳大利亚吸烟数据的情况。
采用时间序列分析，在四个干预点（A）高强度大众媒体宣传活动开始（2010 年 8 月）；（B）实施普通包装（2012 年 12 月）；（C）宣传活动资金削减（2013 年 7 月）；（D）恢复中等强度宣传活动（2014 年 7 月），对每月吸烟流行率趋势进行了检验。
反烟草宣传活动的暂停破坏了实现吸烟流行率目标的进程。在非宣传期间，每月吸烟流行率没有下降的轨迹。此外，在高强度广告宣传期间，吸烟流行率显著下降，这一趋势在实施普通包装法后仍在继续，并且在宣传活动重新开始后仍在继续。
虽然观察到的吸烟率下降可能是多种干预措施的综合结果，不能仅归因于反烟草广告，但结果强化了恢复宣传活动的政治决策，并表明需要持续投资以保持对吸烟率的向下压力。
