a Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation , Maine Medical Center Research Institute , Portland , ME , USA.
b Department of Health Behavior and Health Education , University of Michigan School of Public Health , Ann Arbor , MI , USA.
J Health Commun. 2018;23(5):435-444. doi: 10.1080/10810730.2018.1461961. Epub 2018 Apr 12.
Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats is ethically desirable but challenging due to its tendency to promote avoidance of choice options with unknown probabilities-a phenomenon known as "ambiguity aversion." This study examined this phenomenon's potential magnitude, its responses to different communication strategies, and its mechanisms. In a factorial experiment, 2701 adult laypersons in Spain read one of three versions of a hypothetical newspaper article describing a pandemic vaccine-preventable disease (VPD), but varying in scientific uncertainty about VPD risk and vaccine effectiveness: No-Uncertainty, Uncertainty, and Normalized-Uncertainty (emphasizing its expected nature). Vaccination intentions were lower for the Uncertainty and Normalized-Uncertainty groups compared to the No-Uncertainty group, consistent with ambiguity aversion; Uncertainty and Normalized-Uncertainty groups did not differ. Ambiguity-averse responses were moderated by health literacy and mediated by perceptions of vaccine effectiveness, VPD likelihood, and VPD severity. Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats warrants caution and further research to elucidate its outcomes, mechanisms, and management.
沟通公共卫生威胁的科学不确定性在伦理上是可取的，但具有挑战性，因为它倾向于避免选择具有未知概率的选择-这种现象被称为“模糊厌恶”。本研究考察了这种现象的潜在程度、对不同沟通策略的反应及其机制。在一个析因实验中，西班牙的 2701 名成年非专业人士阅读了三种假设的报纸文章之一，描述了一种大流行疫苗可预防疾病 (VPD)，但 VPD 风险和疫苗有效性的科学不确定性不同：无不确定性、不确定性和规范化不确定性(强调其预期性质)。与无不确定性组相比，不确定性组和规范化不确定性组的疫苗接种意愿较低，这与模糊厌恶一致;不确定性组和规范化不确定性组之间没有差异。模糊厌恶反应受到健康素养的调节，并通过疫苗效力、VPD 可能性和 VPD 严重程度的感知来介导。沟通公共卫生威胁的科学不确定性需要谨慎对待，并进一步研究阐明其结果、机制和管理。
