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一种基于微观层面数据校准的多智能体模型:微观模拟与多智能体建模之间的协同作用。

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

作者信息

Singh Karandeep, Ahn Chang-Won, Paik Euihyun, Bae Jang Won, Lee Chun-Hee

机构信息

Department of Computer Software, Korea University of Science & Technology (UST); and Smart Data Research Group, SW-Content Research Laboratory, Electronics & Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI).

Smart Data Research Group, SW-Content Research Laboratory, Electronics & Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI).

出版信息

Artif Life. 2018 Spring;24(2):128-148. doi: 10.1162/artl_a_00260. Epub 2018 Apr 17.

Abstract

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

摘要

人工生命(ALife)利用计算机模型模拟、机器人技术和生物化学方法,研究与自然生命、其过程及其进化相关的系统。在本文中,我们聚焦于人工生命的计算机建模,即“软件”方面,并为科学家和建模人员准备一个能够支持此类实验的框架。该框架被设计和构建为一个并行且基于分布式智能体的建模环境,并不要求终端用户具备并行或分布式计算方面的专业知识。此外,我们使用这个框架,运用微观模拟和基于智能体的建模技术实现一个混合模型,以生成一个人工社会。我们利用这个人工社会,使用韩国人口普查数据来模拟和分析人口动态。该模型中的智能体从真实数据(微观模拟特征)中获取其决策行为,并相互作用(基于智能体的建模特征)以推进模拟。通过改变智能体的行为、相互作用和社会场景来进行人口动态分析。我们还根据人工社会未来的人口结构,估算养老金政策的未来成本。所提出的框架和模型展示了研究人员如何将人工生命技术应用于社会问题和政策方面。

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