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新西兰塔拉纳基地区奶牛蹄叶炎的农场层面风险因素:基于贝叶斯障碍模型的分析

Farm level risk factors for bovine digital dermatitis in Taranaki, New Zealand: An analysis using a Bayesian hurdle model.

作者信息

Yang D A, Laven R A, Heuer C, Vink W D, Chesterton R N

机构信息

Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand.

Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand.

出版信息

Vet J. 2018 Apr;234:91-95. doi: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2018.02.012. Epub 2018 Mar 21.

Abstract

As part of a cross-sectional study of bovine digital dermatitis (BDD) in 60,455 cows across 224 herds, in Taranaki, a region of the North Island of New Zealand, from September 2014 to February 2015, questionnaires from 114 farms were analysed to identify the key management practices which affect the probability of a farm being affected by BDD and the prevalence of an individual cow being affected on affected farms. The data from the questionnaires were analysed using a Bayesian hurdle model. Two factors were identified as being associated with farm level infection status: (1) milking parlour type; farms which had rotary platforms were more likely to be recorded as having BDD than those which had herringbone parlours (odds ratio, OR, 3.19; 95% probability interval, PI, 1.31-8.51); and (2) young stock movement; farms whose young stock were reared on farms alongside heifers from other farms had a higher odds of being BDD positive than farms where heifers were kept separate (OR 4.15; 95% PI 1.39-15.27). Two factors were associated with an increase in the prevalence of BDD within affected farms: (1) farms which used outside staff to trim feet had a higher prevalence of BDD (prevalence ratio, PR, 3.13; 95% PI 1.25-7.29) than farms which did not use outside staff; and (2) farms examined in spring (September to November) had a higher prevalence of BDD (PR 2.16; 95% PI 1.05-4.43) than farms examined in summer (December to February).

摘要

作为对新西兰北岛塔拉纳基地区224个牛群中60455头奶牛进行的牛趾间皮炎(BDD)横断面研究的一部分,在2014年9月至2015年2月期间,对来自114个农场的问卷进行了分析,以确定影响农场受BDD影响的可能性以及受影响农场中个体奶牛受影响患病率的关键管理措施。使用贝叶斯障碍模型对问卷数据进行了分析。确定了两个与农场层面感染状况相关的因素:(1)挤奶厅类型;拥有旋转平台的农场比拥有鱼骨式挤奶厅的农场更有可能被记录为患有BDD(优势比,OR,3.19;95%概率区间,PI,1.31 - 8.51);(2)幼畜流动;幼畜与来自其他农场的小母牛一起在农场饲养的农场比小母牛分开饲养的农场BDD呈阳性的几率更高(OR 4.15;95% PI 1.39 - 15.27)。两个因素与受影响农场中BDD患病率的增加相关:(1)使用外部人员修剪蹄子的农场比不使用外部人员的农场BDD患病率更高(患病率比,PR,3.13;95% PI 1.25 - 7.29);(2)春季(9月至11月)检查的农场比夏季(12月至2月)检查的农场BDD患病率更高(PR 2.16;95% PI 1.05 - 4.43)。

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