School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Center for Environmental Health Engineering, Biodesign Institute, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2018 Oct;65(5):1339-1347. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12883. Epub 2018 Apr 24.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are a major concern to human and animal health in Indonesia. This study aimed to characterize transmission dynamics of H5N1 over time using novel Bayesian phylogeography methods to identify factors which have influenced the spread of H5N1 in Indonesia. We used publicly available hemagglutinin sequence data sampled between 2003 and 2016 to model ancestral state reconstruction of HPAI H5N1 evolution. We found strong support for H5N1 transmission routes between provinces in Java Island and inter-island transmissions, such as between Nusa Tenggara and Kalimantan Islands, not previously described. The spread is consistent with wild bird flyways and poultry trading routes. H5N1 migration was associated with the regions of high chicken densities and low human development indices. These results can be used to inform more targeted planning of H5N1 control and prevention activities in Indonesia.
高致病性禽流感（HPAI）病毒 H5N1 亚型是印度尼西亚人类和动物健康的主要关注点。本研究旨在使用新的贝叶斯系统地理学方法来描述 H5N1 的传播动态，以确定影响 H5N1 在印度尼西亚传播的因素。我们使用了 2003 年至 2016 年间公开提供的血凝素序列数据来模拟 HPAI H5N1 进化的祖先状态重建。我们发现，爪哇岛各省之间以及巴厘岛和加里曼丹岛之间等岛屿之间的 H5N1 传播途径得到了强有力的支持，此前并未对此进行描述。这种传播与野生鸟类迁徙路线和家禽贸易路线一致。H5N1 的迁移与鸡密度高和人类发展指数低的地区有关。这些结果可用于为印度尼西亚的 H5N1 控制和预防活动提供更有针对性的规划。
