Minimum Action Path Theory Reveals the Details of Stochastic Transitions Out of Oscillatory States.

Cell state determination is the outcome of intrinsically stochastic biochemical reactions. Transitions between such states are studied as noise-driven escape problems in the chemical species space. Escape can occur via multiple possible multidimensional paths, with probabilities depending nonlocally on the noise. Here we characterize the escape from an oscillatory biochemical state by minimizing the Freidlin-Wentzell action, deriving from it the stochastic spiral exit path from the limit cycle. We also use the minimized action to infer the escape time probability density function.