Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
CoNISMa - Piazzale Flaminio, Roma, Italy.
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Aug;24(8):3654-3665. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14296. Epub 2018 Jun 1.
Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m day ) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions.
定义可持续性目标是一项关键但困难的任务，因为它通常涉及到对多个相互关联且有时相互冲突的因素进行量化。这种复杂性可能会因气候变化而加剧，气候变化将增加水产养殖的环境脆弱性，并可能影响满足不断增长的人口需求的能力。在这里，我们开发了一种方法，通过量化环境成本和收益之间关键权衡的时空变化，来告知可持续水产养殖，方法是使用达到商业规模的时间作为气候变化下水产养殖经济影响的可能替代指标。我们的研究结果表明，通过最小化影响（本研究将底栖碳沉积≥1g C m -2 day -1视为影响）来优化水产养殖实践将在气候变化下变得越来越困难。此外，温度升高将导致可持续性权衡的两极转移。这些发现表明，未来的可持续管理战略和计划将需要在各个层面上考虑气候变化的影响。总的来说，我们的研究结果强调了在不断变化的气候条件下为了可持续地管理关键自然资源，必须整合环境因素的重要性。
