Joint International Research Laboratory of Agriculture and Agri-Product Safety, The Ministry of Education of China, Institutes of Agricultural Science and Technology Development, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Cultivation and Physiology, Agricultural College of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; Jiangsu Co-Innovation Center for Modern Production Technology of Grain Crops, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China.
National Key Laboratory of Crop Improvement, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430070, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Mar 20;761:143206. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143206. Epub 2020 Oct 28.
Evaluating the impact of climate change factors, especially temperature and carbon dioxide (CO), on rice yield is essential to ensure future food security. Because of the wide biogeographical distribution of rice, such evaluations are conducted exclusively through modeling efforts. However, geographical forecasts could, potentially, be improved by the inclusion of field-based data on projected increases in temperature and CO concentration from a given rice-growing region. In this study, the latest version of the ORYZA (v3) crop model was evaluated with additional yield data obtained from a temperature-controlled free-air CO enrichment system (T-FACE) in Southeastern China. ORYZA (v3) results were then evaluated in the context of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using five global change models (GCMs). Our findings indicate that climate change, i.e., inclusion of CO and temperature effects, decreased mean rice yield by 3.5%, and 9.4% for RCP 4.5; and by 10.5 and 47.9% for RCP 8.5 for the scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The CO fertilizer effect partially compensated but did not offset the negative impacts of rising temperature on rice yields. Warmer temperatures were the primary factor that influenced yield by adversely affecting the spikelet fertility factor and spikelet number. Overall, climate change would have positive effects on rice yields until the middle-century in Southeastern China but negative effects were noted by the end of the century. These results may be of interest for informing policy makers and developing appropriate strategies to improve future rice productivity for this region of China.
评估气候变化因素，特别是温度和二氧化碳（CO）对水稻产量的影响，对于确保未来粮食安全至关重要。由于水稻广泛的生物地理分布，这种评估只能通过建模工作进行。然而，通过纳入特定水稻种植地区预期的温度和 CO 浓度增加的实地数据，地理预测可能会得到改善。在本研究中，使用来自中国东南部的温度控制自由空气 CO 富集系统（T-FACE）获得的额外产量数据对最新版本的 ORYZA（v3）作物模型进行了评估。然后，ORYZA（v3）的结果根据第五阶段耦合模型比较计划（CMIP5），使用五个全球变化模型（GCM），针对代表性浓度途径（RCP）4.5 和 RCP 8.5 进行了评估。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化，即包括 CO 和温度效应，使平均水稻产量分别减少了 3.5%和 9.4%，对于 RCP 4.5 的 2050 年代和 2080 年代情景；对于 RCP 8.5 的 2050 年代和 2080 年代情景，分别减少了 10.5%和 47.9%。CO 肥料效应部分补偿了，但没有抵消气温升高对水稻产量的负面影响。温度升高是影响产量的主要因素，它通过不利地影响小穗育性因子和小穗数对产量产生影响。总体而言，气候变化将对中国东南部的水稻产量产生积极影响，直到本世纪中叶，但到本世纪末，这种影响将是负面的。这些结果可能对决策者有所帮助，并为该地区制定提高未来水稻生产力的适当战略提供信息。
