Archis Jennifer N, Akcali Christopher, Stuart Bryan L, Kikuchi David, Chunco Amanda J
Department of Environmental Studies, Elon Univeristy, Elon, NC, United States of America.
Biology Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States of America.
PeerJ. 2018 May 1;6:e4647. doi: 10.7717/peerj.4647. eCollection 2018.
Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake (). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.
人为气候变化是物种分布变化的一个重要全球驱动因素。尽管许多物种在其向极地方向的分布界限处经历了范围扩张，但关于几个分类群的数据仍然缺乏。研究范围变化的一种常用方法是使用物种分布模型来评估当前分布并预测未来分布。值得注意的是，物种分布建模中使用的许多“当前”气候数据来源都使用1950 - 2000年的数据来计算气候平均值。然而，这并未考虑到近期（2000年后）的气候变化。本研究考察了气候变化对东部珊瑚蛇（）的影响。具体而言，我们：（1）确定了美国东南部东部珊瑚蛇的当前分布范围和适宜环境，（2）调查了气候变化对东部珊瑚蛇分布的潜在影响，以及（3）评估了未来模型在预测近期（2001 - 2015年）记录方面的效用。我们使用物种分布建模程序Maxent，并比较了当前（1950 - 2000年）和未来（2050年）的气候条件。未来气候模型显示，适宜栖息地的分布在很大一部分范围内发生了变化；然而，结果还表明，美国东南部的大部分地区将超出当前条件的范围，这表明未来可能会出现无类似物的环境。最引人注目的是，未来模型在预测近期记录方面比当前模型更有效，这表明范围变化可能已经在发生。这些结果对东部珊瑚蛇及其贝氏拟态者都有影响。更广泛地说，我们建议未来的Maxent研究考虑使用未来气候数据以及当前数据，以更好地估计当前分布。
