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看不见的手和 EKC 假说:非洲环境恶化和污染的驱动因素是什么?

The invisible hand and EKC hypothesis: what are the drivers of environmental degradation and pollution in Africa?

机构信息

Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Aug;25(22):21993-22022. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-2347-x. Epub 2018 May 24.

Abstract

This study examined the drivers of environmental degradation and pollution in 17 countries in Africa from 1971 to 2013. The empirical study was analyzed with Westerlund error-correction model and panel cointegration tests with 1000 bootstrapping samples, U-shape test, fixed and random effect estimators, and panel causality test. The investigation of the nexus between environmental pollution economic growth in Africa confirms the validity of the EKC hypothesis in Africa at a turning point of US$ 5702 GDP per capita. However, the nexus between environmental degradation and economic growth reveals a U shape at a lower bound GDP of US$ 101/capita and upper bound GDP of US$ 8050/capita, at a turning point of US$ 7958 GDP per capita, confirming the scale effect hypothesis. The empirical findings revealed that energy consumption, food production, economic growth, permanent crop, agricultural land, birth rate, and fertility rate play a major role in environmental degradation and pollution in Africa, thus supporting the global indicators for achieving the sustainable development goals by 2030.

摘要

本研究考察了 1971 年至 2013 年期间非洲 17 个国家的环境退化和污染的驱动因素。采用 Westerlund 误差修正模型和面板协整检验,进行了实证研究,样本数为 1000 次 bootstrap,U 形检验,固定和随机效应估计以及面板因果关系检验。对非洲污染经济增长关系的调查证实,在人均 GDP 为 5702 美元的转折点,非洲的 EKC 假说成立。但是,环境退化与经济增长之间的关系显示,在人均 GDP 为 101 美元和 8050 美元的上下限内,呈 U 形,在人均 GDP 为 7958 美元的转折点上,证实了规模效应假说。实证结果表明,能源消耗、粮食生产、经济增长、永久性作物、农业用地、出生率和生育率在非洲的环境退化和污染中起着重要作用,从而支持实现 2030 年可持续发展目标的全球指标。

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